Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are powerful tools for assessing and predicting consequences of water management scenarios and uncertain drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the interests of the multiple stakeholders. However, among their major limitations, the non-tr...

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Autores: Molina, José Luis, Pulido Velázquez, David, García-Arostegui, J.L., Pulido-Velazquez, M.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2013
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/43270
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/43270
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Climate Change
Decision Support Systems
Aquifers management
Impacts
Groundwater intensive use
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
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spelling Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systemsMolina, José LuisPulido Velázquez, DavidGarcía-Arostegui, J.L.Pulido-Velazquez, M.Dynamic Bayesian NetworksClimate ChangeDecision Support SystemsAquifers managementImpactsGroundwater intensive useINGENIERIA HIDRAULICABayesian Networks (BNs) are powerful tools for assessing and predicting consequences of water management scenarios and uncertain drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the interests of the multiple stakeholders. However, among their major limitations, the non-transient treatment of the cause-effect relationship stands out. A Decision Support System (DSS) based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is proposed here aimed to palliate that limitation through time slicing technique. The DSS comprises several classes (Object-Oriented BN networks), especially designed for future 5 years length time steps (time slices), covering a total control period of 30 years (2070-2100). The DSS has been developed for assessing impacts generated by different Climate Change (CC) scenarios (generated from several Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B and A2) in an aquifer system (Serral-Salinas) affected by intensive groundwater use over the last 30 years. A calibrated continuous water balance model was used to generate hydrological CC scenarios, and then a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was employed in order to analyze the aquifer behavior under CC conditions. Results obtained from both models were used as input for the DSS, considering rainfall, aquifer recharge, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system. Results show the evolution of the aquifer storage for each future time step under different climate change conditions and under controlled water management interventions. This type of applications would allow establishing potential adaptation strategies for aquifer systems as the CC comes into effectThis study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project GENESIS (226536) on groundwater systems and from the subprogram Juan de la Cierva (2010) of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation as well as from the Plan Nacional I+D+i 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Subprojects CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02). T. Finally, the authors want to thank the Segura River Basin Agency (Confederacion Hidrografica del Segura) for the data and information facilitated, and to all the stakeholders who have collaborated in this research.ElsevierMinisterio de Ciencia e InnovaciónRepositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20132013-02-04journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/43270reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)InglésengEuropean Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 FP7 226536 Groundwater and dependent Ecosystems: NEw Scientific basIS on climate change and land-use impacts for the update of the EU Groundwater DirectiveMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 CGL2009-13238-C02-01 Generación y simulación de escenarios futuros de hidrología superficial y subterránea (GESHYDRO)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 CGL2009-13238-C02-02 Modelos hidroeconómicos para adaptar la gestión de sistemas de recursos hídricos al cambio climático (HYDROECOCLIMATE)open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Reserva de todos los derechoshttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/432702026-06-13T07:49:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
title Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
spellingShingle Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
Molina, José Luis
Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Climate Change
Decision Support Systems
Aquifers management
Impacts
Groundwater intensive use
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
title_short Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
title_full Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
title_fullStr Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
title_full_unstemmed Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
title_sort Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support Tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Molina, José Luis
Pulido Velázquez, David
García-Arostegui, J.L.
Pulido-Velazquez, M.
author Molina, José Luis
author_facet Molina, José Luis
Pulido Velázquez, David
García-Arostegui, J.L.
Pulido-Velazquez, M.
author_role author
author2 Pulido Velázquez, David
García-Arostegui, J.L.
Pulido-Velazquez, M.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Climate Change
Decision Support Systems
Aquifers management
Impacts
Groundwater intensive use
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
topic Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Climate Change
Decision Support Systems
Aquifers management
Impacts
Groundwater intensive use
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
description Bayesian Networks (BNs) are powerful tools for assessing and predicting consequences of water management scenarios and uncertain drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the interests of the multiple stakeholders. However, among their major limitations, the non-transient treatment of the cause-effect relationship stands out. A Decision Support System (DSS) based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is proposed here aimed to palliate that limitation through time slicing technique. The DSS comprises several classes (Object-Oriented BN networks), especially designed for future 5 years length time steps (time slices), covering a total control period of 30 years (2070-2100). The DSS has been developed for assessing impacts generated by different Climate Change (CC) scenarios (generated from several Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B and A2) in an aquifer system (Serral-Salinas) affected by intensive groundwater use over the last 30 years. A calibrated continuous water balance model was used to generate hydrological CC scenarios, and then a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was employed in order to analyze the aquifer behavior under CC conditions. Results obtained from both models were used as input for the DSS, considering rainfall, aquifer recharge, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system. Results show the evolution of the aquifer storage for each future time step under different climate change conditions and under controlled water management interventions. This type of applications would allow establishing potential adaptation strategies for aquifer systems as the CC comes into effect
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013
2013-02-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/43270
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/43270
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 FP7 226536 Groundwater and dependent Ecosystems: NEw Scientific basIS on climate change and land-use impacts for the update of the EU Groundwater Directive
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 CGL2009-13238-C02-01 Generación y simulación de escenarios futuros de hidrología superficial y subterránea (GESHYDRO)
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 CGL2009-13238-C02-02 Modelos hidroeconómicos para adaptar la gestión de sistemas de recursos hídricos al cambio climático (HYDROECOCLIMATE)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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