Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study

Supercells are among the most hazardous convective systems, frequently producing large hail, destructive winds, and severe socio-economic impacts. The enhancement of weather simulations is identified as a primary strategy to optimise short-term forecasting. The present study investigates the perform...

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Autores: Díaz Fernández, Javier, Calvo Sancho, Carlos, López Reyes, Mauricio, Bolgiani, Pedro, González Alemán, Juan Jesús, Morata, Ana, Santos Muñoz, Daniel, Martín Pérez, María Luisa
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Valladolid
Repositorio:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
OAI Identifier:oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/82593
Acesso em linha:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108774
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/82593
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Convection
HARMONIE-AROME
Nesting approach
Supercells
Verification
12 Matemáticas
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spelling Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case studyDíaz Fernández, JavierCalvo Sancho, CarlosLópez Reyes, MauricioBolgiani, PedroGonzález Alemán, Juan JesúsMorata, AnaSantos Muñoz, DanielMartín Pérez, María LuisaConvectionHARMONIE-AROMENesting approachSupercellsVerification12 MatemáticasSupercells are among the most hazardous convective systems, frequently producing large hail, destructive winds, and severe socio-economic impacts. The enhancement of weather simulations is identified as a primary strategy to optimise short-term forecasting. The present study investigates the performance of two high-resolution con- figurations of the HARMONIE-AROME model during a severe supercell outbreak over eastern Iberia on 31st July 2015, when six confirmed supercells caused significant damage. The setups tested include a two-step one-way nested approach (2.5 km outer domain and 500 m inner domain), and a single-domain configuration at 500 m resolution. The model outputs, which include reflectivity, precipitation and temperature, are validated against OPERA radar composites and surface observations. At the same time, key convective parameters, derived from the Murcia sounding, are analyzed to assess the pre-convective environment. Although the simulations demonstrate a similar structure to the observed event, the two-domain nested simulation offers a slightly su- perior depiction of reflectivity and thermodynamic profiles. Nevertheless, precipitation analysis reveals that while nesting improves moderate rainfall representation, it introduces larger errors for the most extreme amounts, limiting its overall benefit. The obtained gain is not sufficient to offset the 30% higher computational cost when the two-domain nested approach is used. The single-domain non-nested configuration demonstrates a superior level of efficiency, exhibiting equivalent accuracy while exhibiting a diminished resource requirement.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (MICIU), AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER y UE (grant PID2023-146344OB-I00)Elsevier2026info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108774https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/82593reponame:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolidinstname:Universidad de ValladolidIngléshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809526000384info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/825932026-06-13T12:44:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
title Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
spellingShingle Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
Díaz Fernández, Javier
Convection
HARMONIE-AROME
Nesting approach
Supercells
Verification
12 Matemáticas
title_short Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
title_full Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
title_fullStr Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
title_full_unstemmed Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
title_sort Cost-benefit analysis of the nesting approach in HARMONIE-AROME for a supercell outbreak case study
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Díaz Fernández, Javier
Calvo Sancho, Carlos
López Reyes, Mauricio
Bolgiani, Pedro
González Alemán, Juan Jesús
Morata, Ana
Santos Muñoz, Daniel
Martín Pérez, María Luisa
author Díaz Fernández, Javier
author_facet Díaz Fernández, Javier
Calvo Sancho, Carlos
López Reyes, Mauricio
Bolgiani, Pedro
González Alemán, Juan Jesús
Morata, Ana
Santos Muñoz, Daniel
Martín Pérez, María Luisa
author_role author
author2 Calvo Sancho, Carlos
López Reyes, Mauricio
Bolgiani, Pedro
González Alemán, Juan Jesús
Morata, Ana
Santos Muñoz, Daniel
Martín Pérez, María Luisa
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Convection
HARMONIE-AROME
Nesting approach
Supercells
Verification
12 Matemáticas
topic Convection
HARMONIE-AROME
Nesting approach
Supercells
Verification
12 Matemáticas
description Supercells are among the most hazardous convective systems, frequently producing large hail, destructive winds, and severe socio-economic impacts. The enhancement of weather simulations is identified as a primary strategy to optimise short-term forecasting. The present study investigates the performance of two high-resolution con- figurations of the HARMONIE-AROME model during a severe supercell outbreak over eastern Iberia on 31st July 2015, when six confirmed supercells caused significant damage. The setups tested include a two-step one-way nested approach (2.5 km outer domain and 500 m inner domain), and a single-domain configuration at 500 m resolution. The model outputs, which include reflectivity, precipitation and temperature, are validated against OPERA radar composites and surface observations. At the same time, key convective parameters, derived from the Murcia sounding, are analyzed to assess the pre-convective environment. Although the simulations demonstrate a similar structure to the observed event, the two-domain nested simulation offers a slightly su- perior depiction of reflectivity and thermodynamic profiles. Nevertheless, precipitation analysis reveals that while nesting improves moderate rainfall representation, it introduces larger errors for the most extreme amounts, limiting its overall benefit. The obtained gain is not sufficient to offset the 30% higher computational cost when the two-domain nested approach is used. The single-domain non-nested configuration demonstrates a superior level of efficiency, exhibiting equivalent accuracy while exhibiting a diminished resource requirement.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108774
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/82593
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108774
https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/82593
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809526000384
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
instname:Universidad de Valladolid
instname_str Universidad de Valladolid
reponame_str UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
collection UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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