Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up

Background Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an increased mortality. Few studies have constructed predictive models of all-cause mortality with a high discriminating power for patients with this disease that would enable us to determine which patients are more likely to die....

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Autores: Lopez-Bru, D, Palazon-Bru, A, la Rosa, DMFD, Gil-Guillen, VF
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Recursos:Instituto de Investigación Biomédica y Sanitaria de Alicante (ISABIAL)
Repositorio:r-ISABIAL. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica y Sanitaria de Alicante
OAI Identifier:oai:isabial.fundanetsuite.com:p8069
Acesso em linha:https://isabial.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones8069
Access Level:acceso abierto
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spelling Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-UpLopez-Bru, DPalazon-Bru, Ala Rosa, DMFDGil-Guillen, VFBackground Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an increased mortality. Few studies have constructed predictive models of all-cause mortality with a high discriminating power for patients with this disease that would enable us to determine which patients are more likely to die. Objective To construct a predictive model of all-cause mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC for use as a mobile application. Design We undertook a retrospective cohort study using data from 1984 to 2013. Setting All patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC at a general university hospital covering a population of around 200,000 inhabitants in Spain. Participants The study involved 201 patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC (174, papillary; 27, follicular). Exposures Age, gender, town, family history, type of surgery, type of cancer, histological subtype, micro-carcinoma, multicentricity, TNM staging system, diagnostic stage, permanent post-operative complications, local and regional tumor persistence, distant metastasis, and radioiodine therapy. Main outcome measure All-cause mortality. Methods A Cox multivariate regression model was constructed to determine which variables at diagnosis were associated with mortality. Using the model a risk table was constructed based on the sum of all points to estimate the likelihood of death. This was then incorporated into a mobile application. Results The mean follow-up was 8.8 +/- 6.7 years. All-cause mortality was 12.9%(95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.3- 17.6%). Predictive variables: older age, local tumor persistence and distant metastasis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72- 0.91, p< 0.001). Conclusion This study provides a practical clinical tool giving a simple and rapid indication (via a mobile application) of which patients with DTC are at risk of dying in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. Nonetheless, caution should be exercised until validation studies have corroborated our results.PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2015info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://isabial.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones8069PLoS OneISSN: 19326203reponame:r-ISABIAL. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica y Sanitaria de Alicanteinstname:Instituto de Investigación Biomédica y Sanitaria de Alicante (ISABIAL)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:isabial.fundanetsuite.com:p80692026-06-12T10:20:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
title Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
spellingShingle Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
Lopez-Bru, D
title_short Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
title_full Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
title_fullStr Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
title_full_unstemmed Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
title_sort Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lopez-Bru, D
Palazon-Bru, A
la Rosa, DMFD
Gil-Guillen, VF
author Lopez-Bru, D
author_facet Lopez-Bru, D
Palazon-Bru, A
la Rosa, DMFD
Gil-Guillen, VF
author_role author
author2 Palazon-Bru, A
la Rosa, DMFD
Gil-Guillen, VF
author2_role author
author
author
description Background Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an increased mortality. Few studies have constructed predictive models of all-cause mortality with a high discriminating power for patients with this disease that would enable us to determine which patients are more likely to die. Objective To construct a predictive model of all-cause mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC for use as a mobile application. Design We undertook a retrospective cohort study using data from 1984 to 2013. Setting All patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC at a general university hospital covering a population of around 200,000 inhabitants in Spain. Participants The study involved 201 patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC (174, papillary; 27, follicular). Exposures Age, gender, town, family history, type of surgery, type of cancer, histological subtype, micro-carcinoma, multicentricity, TNM staging system, diagnostic stage, permanent post-operative complications, local and regional tumor persistence, distant metastasis, and radioiodine therapy. Main outcome measure All-cause mortality. Methods A Cox multivariate regression model was constructed to determine which variables at diagnosis were associated with mortality. Using the model a risk table was constructed based on the sum of all points to estimate the likelihood of death. This was then incorporated into a mobile application. Results The mean follow-up was 8.8 +/- 6.7 years. All-cause mortality was 12.9%(95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.3- 17.6%). Predictive variables: older age, local tumor persistence and distant metastasis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72- 0.91, p< 0.001). Conclusion This study provides a practical clinical tool giving a simple and rapid indication (via a mobile application) of which patients with DTC are at risk of dying in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. Nonetheless, caution should be exercised until validation studies have corroborated our results.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://isabial.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones8069
url https://isabial.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones8069
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv PLoS One
ISSN: 19326203
reponame:r-ISABIAL. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica y Sanitaria de Alicante
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