Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has undergone accelerated ice-mass loss in recent decades and it is expected to be one of the main contributors to global sea-level rise in the coming century. Due to the existence of positive feedbacks governing its mass balance, it is thought to be a tipping element...
| Autores: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2026 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) |
| Repositorio: | Docta Complutense |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/133745 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/133745 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | 550.3 Relative sea-level Mass-balance Submarine melt Model Sensitivity Simulation Retreat Deglaciation Variability Stability Geofísica 2507 Geofísica |
| Sumario: | The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has undergone accelerated ice-mass loss in recent decades and it is expected to be one of the main contributors to global sea-level rise in the coming century. Due to the existence of positive feedbacks governing its mass balance, it is thought to be a tipping element of the Earth system. Its stability has been studied under temperatures ranging from the present day to a global warming of +4 K, showing a threshold behavior leading to an ice-free state for warmer temperatures. However, its stability at lower temperatures has not been studied yet. Here we use the ice-sheet model Yelmo to obtain the stability diagram of the GrIS for the full range of glacial-interglacial temperatures, with regional summer air temperature anomalies relative to present extending from a climate representative of the Last Glacial Maximum (−12 K) to a warmer climate (+4 K). We find that the hysteresis persists in almost the entire studied range. Consistent with previous studies, a critical threshold is found between +1.2 and +1.8 K of regional summer air temperature anomaly, associated with atmospheric feedbacks that are represented by the coupled regional energy-moisture balance model REMBO. In addition, a second threshold is found for negative temperature anomalies, which is mainly driven by ocean warming that triggers the marine ice-sheet instability in the northeastern region of the glacial GrIS. The existence of this threshold is consistent with transient studies of the GrIS over the last glacial cycle. |
|---|