Prediction model for cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes using machine learning derived and validated in two independent Korean cohorts.

This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model tailored to the Korean population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to provide a superior method for predicting the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), a major chronic complication in these patients. We used data from...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Sang H, Lee H, Lee M, Park J, Kim S, Woo HG, Rahmati M, Koyanagi A, Smith L, Lee S, Hwang YC, Park TS, Lim H, Yon DK, Rhee SY
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Fundació Sant Joan de Déu
Repositorio:r-FSJD. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica de la Fundació Sant Joan de Déu
OAI Identifier:oai:fsjd.fundanetsuite.com:p26459
Acceso en línea:https://fsjd.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=26459
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cardiovascular diseases
Diabetes mellitus
Machine learning
Prediction
Random forest model
Descripción
Sumario:This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model tailored to the Korean population with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to provide a superior method for predicting the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), a major chronic complication in these patients. We used data from two cohorts, namely the discovery (one hospital; n = 12,809) and validation (two hospitals; n = 2019) cohorts, recruited between 2008 and 2022. The outcome of interest was the presence or absence of CVD at 3 years. We selected various ML-based models with hyperparameter tuning in the discovery cohort and performed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis in the validation cohort. CVD was observed in 1238 (10.2%) patients in the discovery cohort. The random forest (RF) model exhibited the best overall performance among the models, with an AUROC of 0.830 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.818-0.842) in the discovery dataset and 0.722 (95% CI 0.660-0.783) in the validation dataset. Creatinine and glycated hemoglobin levels were the most influential factors in the RF model. This study introduces a pioneering ML-based model for predicting CVD in Korean patients with T2DM, outperforming existing prediction tools and providing a groundbreaking approach for early personalized preventive medicine.