Forecasting Renewable Scenarios and Uncertainty Analysis in Microgrids for Self-Sufficiency and Reliability: Estimation of Extreme Scenarios for 2040 in El Hierro (Spain)
[EN] This study assesses the feasibility of fully renewable energy systems on El Hierro, the smallest and most isolated island of the Canary Archipelago (Spain), contributing to Europe’s decarbonization goals. Assuming full economic decarbonization, the island’s annual electricity demand by 2040 is...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositorio: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/230310 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/230310 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Uncertainty analysis Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) analysis Wilks formula Energy balance forecasts Hybrid Renewable Energy System Sustainable energy transition |
| Sumario: | [EN] This study assesses the feasibility of fully renewable energy systems on El Hierro, the smallest and most isolated island of the Canary Archipelago (Spain), contributing to Europe’s decarbonization goals. Assuming full economic decarbonization, the island’s annual electricity demand by 2040 is projected at 80–110 GWh. Today, El Hierro remains exposed to fossil-fuel dependence and renewable variability, so reliability requires a coordinated mix of renewables and storage. We model two scenarios in HOMER Pro 3.18.4 with probabilistic methods to capture variability in generation and demand. BAU represents the present system augmented with electric vehicles; Efficiency adds energy-efficiency measures and collective-mobility policies. Both prioritize electrification and derive an optimal generation mix under techno-economic constraints to minimize levelized cost of energy (LCOE). Leveraging abundant solar and wind resources, complemented by pumped-hydro storage and utility-scale batteries, fully renewable systems can meet demand reliably, yielding ~30% surplus energy with an LCOE ≈ 10 c€/kWh. The BAU solution includes 53 MW PV, 16 MW wind, and 40 MW / 800 MWh storage. The Efficiency solution includes 42 MW PV, 11.5 MW wind, and 35 MW / 550 MWh storage. Uncertainty analysis indicates that maintaining reliability requires roughly a 10% increase in installed capacity and costs, equivalent to +7 MW PV and +6 MW / 23.5 MWh batteries in BAU, and +6 MW PV and +4 MW / 16 MWh in Efficiency. |
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