Developing a systems dynamic model to capture Nexus interactions and help to promote sustainable development in Azerbaijan
The objectives of this work are to investigate water, land, food, energy sectors of Azerbaijan, analyze their effect on the climate of the country, determine the key links between these sectors and understand the dynamics between them using System Dynamics Modeling (SDM). Moreover, the study aims to...
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| Formato: | tesis de maestría |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/334226 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/334226 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Climatic changes Sustainable development Canvis climàtics Desenvolupament sostenible Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Enginyeria ambiental |
| Resumo: | The objectives of this work are to investigate water, land, food, energy sectors of Azerbaijan, analyze their effect on the climate of the country, determine the key links between these sectors and understand the dynamics between them using System Dynamics Modeling (SDM). Moreover, the study aims to provide solutions, recommendations and policy insights that could be useful to make effective policy decisions to push Azerbaijan towards low-carbon and sustainable economic development. The literature review of previous studies of the sustainability state of Azerbaijan and papers related to SDM was done and included in this report. The literature review helped to identify the state of the art and the gaps in the research areas about the sustainable development of Azerbaijan. Thus, data collection on water, land, food, energy, and climate sectors was conducted to run the SDM and forecast the changes in these sectors until 2050 taking 2017 as a baseline year. The results of the model projected a decrease in the total available water and land resources whereas the production and consumption of food, electricity production and demand are forecasted to increase by 2050. All these sectors are determined to have a direct influence on the climate by affecting GHG emissions and their sequestration. Moreover, the comparative analysis of GHG emissions and sequestration proved an excessive amount of emissions in the considered period (2017-2050). Finally, recommendations on energy and agricultural sectors are presented together with solutions to change the data quality issues and pollution permits in Azerbaijan. |
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