Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird sp...

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Autores: Howard, Christine, Marjakangas, Emma-Liina, Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra, Milanesi, Pietro, Abuladze, Aleksandre, Aghababyan, Karen, Ajder, Vitalie, Arkumarev, Volen, Balmer, Dawn E., Bauer, Hans-Günther, Beale, Colin M., Bino, Taulant, Boyla, Kerem Ali, Burfield, Ian J., Burke, Brian, Caffrey, Brian, Chodkiewicz, Tomasz, Del Moral, Juan Carlos, Dumbovic Mazal, Vlatka, Fernández, Néstor, Fornasari, Lorenzo, Gerlach, Bettina, Godinho, Carlos, Herrando, Sergi, Ieronymidou, Christina, Johnston, Alison, Jovicevic, Mihailo, Kalyakin, Mikhail, Keller, Verena, Knaus, Peter, Kotrošan, Dražen, Kuzmenko, Tatiana, Leitão, Domingos, Lindström, Åke, Maxhuni, Qenan, Mihelič, Tomaž, Mikuska, Tibor, Molina, Blas, Nagy, Károly, Noble, David, Øien, Ingar Jostein, Paquet, Jean-Yves, Pladevall, Clara, Portolou, Danae, Radišić, Dimitrije, Rajkov, Saša, Rajković, Draženko Z., Raudonikis, Liutauras, Sattler, Thomas, Saveljić, Darko, Shimmings, Paul, Sjenicic, Jovica, Šťastný, Karel, Stoychev, Stoycho, Strus, Iurii, Sudfeldt, Christoph, Sultanov, Elchin, Szép, Tibor, Teufelbauer, Norbert, Uzunova, Danka, Van Turnhout, Chris A. M., Velevski, Metodija, Vikstrøm, Thomas, Vintchevski, Alexandre, Voltzit, Olga, Voříšek, Petr, Wilk, Tomasz, Zurell, Damaris, Brotons, Lluís, Lehikoinen, Aleksi, Willis, Stephen G.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
Repositorio:Repositori Obert UdL
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/463856
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/463856
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climate-change ecology
Ecological modelling
Macroecology
Descripción
Sumario:Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

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