Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 incubation period: impact on quarantine policy

The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not always observed exactly due to uncertain onset times of infection and disease symptoms. In this paper, we demonstrate how to estimate the distribution of incubation and its association with patient demographic factors when the exact...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Pak, Daewoo, Langohr, Klaus|||0000-0001-7075-9192, Ning, Jing, Cortés Martínez, Jordi|||0000-0002-3764-0795, Gómez Melis, Guadalupe|||0000-0003-4252-4884, Shen, Yu
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/344010
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/344010
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8091631
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
Generalized odds-rate class of models
Incubation period
Infectious disease
Interval censoring
Left censoring
Quarantine policy
Classificació AMS::90 Operations research, mathematical programming
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística
Descripción
Sumario:The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not always observed exactly due to uncertain onset times of infection and disease symptoms. In this paper, we demonstrate how to estimate the distribution of incubation and its association with patient demographic factors when the exact dates of infection and symptoms’ onset may not be observed. The findings from analysis of the confirmed COVID-19 cases indicate that age could be associated with the incubation period, and an age-specific quarantine policy might be more efficient than a unified one in confining COVID-19.