Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales

Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of plausible future climate trajectories in the next decades to centuries. The reliable detection of climate fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales depends on proxy reconstructions and mo...

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Autores: Laepple, Thomas, Ziegler, Elisa, Hébert, Raphaël, Schoch, Patrizia, Martrat, Belen, Bothe, Oliver, Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo|||0000-0002-7931-5149, Chevalier, Manuel, Herbert, Annika, Rehfeld, Kira
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/396644
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/396644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climate variations
Climate and Earth system modelling
Palaeoclimate
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
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repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
title Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
spellingShingle Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
Laepple, Thomas
Climate variations
Climate and Earth system modelling
Palaeoclimate
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
title_full Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
title_fullStr Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
title_full_unstemmed Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
title_sort Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Laepple, Thomas
Ziegler, Elisa
Hébert, Raphaël
Schoch, Patrizia
Martrat, Belen
Bothe, Oliver
Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo|||0000-0002-7931-5149
Chevalier, Manuel
Herbert, Annika
Rehfeld, Kira
author Laepple, Thomas
author_facet Laepple, Thomas
Ziegler, Elisa
Hébert, Raphaël
Schoch, Patrizia
Martrat, Belen
Bothe, Oliver
Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo|||0000-0002-7931-5149
Chevalier, Manuel
Herbert, Annika
Rehfeld, Kira
author_role author
author2 Ziegler, Elisa
Hébert, Raphaël
Schoch, Patrizia
Martrat, Belen
Bothe, Oliver
Moreno Chamarro, Eduardo|||0000-0002-7931-5149
Chevalier, Manuel
Herbert, Annika
Rehfeld, Kira
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate variations
Climate and Earth system modelling
Palaeoclimate
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Climate variations
Climate and Earth system modelling
Palaeoclimate
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of plausible future climate trajectories in the next decades to centuries. The reliable detection of climate fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales depends on proxy reconstructions and model simulations, as the instrumental record extends back only a few decades in most parts of the world. Systematic comparisons between model-simulated and proxy-based inferences of natural variability, however, often seem contradictory. Locally, simulated temperature variability is consistently smaller on multidecadal and longer timescales than is indicated by proxy-based reconstructions, implying that climate models or proxy interpretations might have deficiencies. In contrast, at global scales, studies found agreement between simulated and proxy reconstructed temperature variations. Here we review the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia. We identify systematic reconstruction deficiencies that may contribute to differing local and global model–proxy agreement but conclude that they are probably insufficient to resolve such discrepancies. Instead, we argue that regional climate variations persisted for longer timescales than climate models simulating past climate states are able to reproduce. This would imply an underestimation of the regional variability on multidecadal and longer timescales and would bias climate projections and attribution studies. Thus, efforts are needed to improve the simulation of natural variability in climate models accompanied by further refining proxy-based inferences of variability.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-01-01
2023
2023-11-17
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/396644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/396644
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescalesLaepple, ThomasZiegler, ElisaHébert, RaphaëlSchoch, PatriziaMartrat, BelenBothe, OliverMoreno Chamarro, Eduardo|||0000-0002-7931-5149Chevalier, ManuelHerbert, AnnikaRehfeld, KiraClimate variationsClimate and Earth system modellingPalaeoclimateSimulació per ordinadorÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaKnowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of plausible future climate trajectories in the next decades to centuries. The reliable detection of climate fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales depends on proxy reconstructions and model simulations, as the instrumental record extends back only a few decades in most parts of the world. Systematic comparisons between model-simulated and proxy-based inferences of natural variability, however, often seem contradictory. Locally, simulated temperature variability is consistently smaller on multidecadal and longer timescales than is indicated by proxy-based reconstructions, implying that climate models or proxy interpretations might have deficiencies. In contrast, at global scales, studies found agreement between simulated and proxy reconstructed temperature variations. Here we review the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia. We identify systematic reconstruction deficiencies that may contribute to differing local and global model–proxy agreement but conclude that they are probably insufficient to resolve such discrepancies. Instead, we argue that regional climate variations persisted for longer timescales than climate models simulating past climate states are able to reproduce. This would imply an underestimation of the regional variability on multidecadal and longer timescales and would bias climate projections and attribution studies. Thus, efforts are needed to improve the simulation of natural variability in climate models accompanied by further refining proxy-based inferences of variability.This study was undertaken by members of CVAS and 2k Network, working groups of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Global Research association. This is a contribution to the SPACE ERC, STACY and PALMOD projects. The SPACE ERC project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 716092). STACY has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation, project no. 395588486). This work has also been supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), through the PalMod project (subprojects 01LP1926B (O.B.), 01LP1926D (M.C.) and 01LP1926C (B.E., P.S. and N.W.)) from the Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA). B.E. is supported by the Heinrich Böll Foundation. E.M.-C. was supported by the PARAMOUR project, funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique–FNRS and the FWO under the Excellence of Science (EOS) programme (grant no. O0100718F, EOS ID no. 30454083). A.H. was supported by a Legacy Grant from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage. B.M. was supported by LINKA20102 and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation project CEX2018‐000794‐S. The work originated from discussions at the CVAS working group of PAGES at a workshop at the Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg, which was funded by a Hengstberger Prize. We thank N. Beech, C. Brierley, F. Gonzalez-Rouco and M. MacPartland for comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript. This manuscript uses data provided by the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and PMIP. We thank the research groups for producing and kindly making their model outputs, measurements and palaeoclimate reconstructions available to us. Editorial assistance, in the form of language editing and correction, was provided by XpertScientific Editing and Consulting Services. We acknowledge support by the Open Access Publication Funds of Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung.Peer ReviewedNature Research20232023-01-0120232023-11-17journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/396644https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01299-9reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3966442026-05-27T15:37:01Z
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