Analysis of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) Lévy jump model with protective measures

This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on K...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Caraballo Garrido, Tomás, El Fatini, Mohamed, El Khalifi, Mohamed, Rathinasamy, Anandaraman
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión enviada para evaluación y publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/142974
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/142974
https://doi.org/10.1080/07362994.2021.1989312
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Stochastic differential equation
Lévy noise
COVID-19
extinction
persistence in mean
Kunita’s inequality
Descripción
Sumario:This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita’s inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for countinuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behaviour. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease.