Analysis of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) Lévy jump model with protective measures
This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on K...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión enviada para evaluación y publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Sevilla (US) |
| Repositorio: | idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:idus.us.es:11441/142974 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/11441/142974 https://doi.org/10.1080/07362994.2021.1989312 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Stochastic differential equation Lévy noise COVID-19 extinction persistence in mean Kunita’s inequality |
| Sumario: | This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita’s inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for countinuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behaviour. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease. |
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