Globalisation, polycrisis and fragmentation: key elements for strategic governance
Globalisation has been a principal driver of economic growth and global interconnectedness over the past few decades. However, it is presently confronted with a series of mutually reinforcing crises that challenge the future of globalisation as it is currently conceptualised. The confluence of crise...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Autónoma de Madrid |
| Repositorio: | Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/728920 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10486/728920 https://dx.doi.org/10.25115/1853hj95 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Globalisation Polycrisis Governance Permacrisis Geopolitics Fragmentation Economía |
| Sumario: | Globalisation has been a principal driver of economic growth and global interconnectedness over the past few decades. However, it is presently confronted with a series of mutually reinforcing crises that challenge the future of globalisation as it is currently conceptualised. The confluence of crises in geopolitics, health, the environment and the economy has led to the proposition that globalisation exposes countries to an unmanageable degree of risk. The argument is made that greater economic independence, rather than interdependence, would be a more effective means of promoting the welfare of their constituents. These views have begun to shape the trade policy, resulting in a marked increase in unilateral agreements. Some analyses have warned of the risk of fragmentation of the global economy if these prospects continue to spread. The growth of inequality and exclusion between countries has been the subject of considerable criticism. However, there are still more extreme views that define the current economic scenario in the context of a permacrisis, which is defined as a prolonged period of instability and insecurity that produces profound changes in the economy and in society. Indeed, the confluence of numerous variables serves to reinforce the veracity of this novel designation. A complex macroeconomic context in which policy responses are inadequate, coupled with a worsening climate emergency, growing inequality and the rise of nationalist ideologies that challenge global cooperation, presents a challenging environment for economic decision-making. The probability of the occurrence of catastrophic events is not insignificant, yet the likelihood is persistently underestimated. This necessitates an examination of the potential impacts of such events on diverse economic systems. Furthermore, the role of new technologies, particularly AI, and the impact of the prevailing bipolarity on theemergence of a more fragmented world, where other actors are gaining prominence, must be considered. The geopolitical, decision-making and deterrence axis is undergoing a transformation, and its scope necessitates an analysis in terms of strategic governance. |
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