Análisis beneficio costo probabilista de medidas de mitigación del riesgo por sismo
In the situation to make decisions about which risk mitigation measures -RMM- to implement and the performance level required, arises the need for a quantitative analysis of benefits that may be obtained as well as the necessary costs to implement these measures, to systematically compare between al...
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| Formato: | tesis doctoral |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | CBUC, CESCA |
| Repositorio: | TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:www.tdx.cat:10803/398243 |
| Acesso em linha: | http://hdl.handle.net/10803/398243 https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-98121 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil 624 69 72 |
| Resumo: | In the situation to make decisions about which risk mitigation measures -RMM- to implement and the performance level required, arises the need for a quantitative analysis of benefits that may be obtained as well as the necessary costs to implement these measures, to systematically compare between alternatives in order to informed decision making, while many authors agree on the use of cost benefit analysis -B/C- as a tool for evaluating public investment alternatives and social impact. This thesis is developed into three components: the state of knowledge regarding of risk assessment as benefits evaluation method derived from RMM implementation; the conceptual, analytical probabilistic assessment for the B/C; and the application in a real portfolio of public buildings in the Manizales city in Colombia, with real information from the city risk management project, in which information on seismic demand (hazard), characteristics of elements (exposure) and behavior models (vulnerability) were generated, plus the cost analysis for probabilistic B/C assessment of the RMM. As result of the progress made in the B/C analysis from the author and as result of the concerns and needs for more and better tools in the decision making process, in this thesis an analytic expression is deducted for the probabilistic B/C assessment of RMM. This approach takes into account the uncertainties in benefits estimates and costs associated with its implementation considered in an appropriate probabilistic way for a systematic process, taking the proposed by others authors as starting point. By deducting of analytical expression for probabilistic assessment of B/C an expression to evaluate the expected value and the probability of a B/C ratio was obtained, as well as the probability for B/C ratios to be positive. In other words, an implementation costs of the RMM to be outweighed by the benefits, this last evaluated as the difference between present values of losses on the implementation of the RMM. Costs evaluation of different RMM and the distribution types adjusted together with parameters of the probability distributions fitted to the cost data obtained are discussed. The application of probabilistic B/C analysis implemented, takes into account only direct losses without accounting for losses on contents or by business interruption, although an approach to production lost from premature deaths from collapse, category which directly account for the numerator of the B / C and its positively contribution to the decision for the RMM implementation. The inclusion of business interruption by seismic events in the evaluation of B/C is an important way to go in the RMM review in both primary occupation buildings as buildings in the private and industrial sector because it is the main operation reason of those buildings. The methodology is equally applicable to other natural hazards, as well as road infrastructure; processing, storage and water distribution; and hazard control works. |
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