Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia
The extensive literature on Okun's law underscores the significance of this statistical regularity since its discovery in the United States in 1962, both in the realm of economic policy and academia. This is because understanding the unemployment-output relationship allows us to quantify the lo...
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| Format: | doctoral thesis |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication Date: | 2024 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universidad de Valladolid |
| Repository: | UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolid |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/66321 |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.35376/10324/66321 https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/66321 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Economía Unemployment Desempleo DPG PIB Okun's law Ley de Okun 53 Ciencias Económicas |
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Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| title |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| spellingShingle |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia Porras Arena, Maria Sylvina Economía Unemployment Desempleo DPG PIB Okun's law Ley de Okun 53 Ciencias Económicas |
| title_short |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| title_full |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| title_fullStr |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| title_sort |
Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidencia |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Porras Arena, Maria Sylvina |
| author |
Porras Arena, Maria Sylvina |
| author_facet |
Porras Arena, Maria Sylvina |
| author_role |
author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Cabo García, Francisco José Martín Román, Ángel Luis Universidad de Valladolid. Escuela de Doctorado |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Economía Unemployment Desempleo DPG PIB Okun's law Ley de Okun 53 Ciencias Económicas |
| topic |
Economía Unemployment Desempleo DPG PIB Okun's law Ley de Okun 53 Ciencias Económicas |
| description |
The extensive literature on Okun's law underscores the significance of this statistical regularity since its discovery in the United States in 1962, both in the realm of economic policy and academia. This is because understanding the unemployment-output relationship allows us to quantify the loss of production attributable to maintaining high unemployment rates. It also enables us to explore the possibility of predicting the impact of economic activity variations on the unemployment rate, and, based on this, evaluate the costs in terms of social welfare implications. A review of this literature reveals a high level of heterogeneity among the estimated coefficients of the relationship for different countries and regions and at different points in time. Consequently, it is impossible to extract the idea of a single value that represents the relationship between unemployment and output for all times and places. So, the question that arises next is: what are the determining factors that cause the Okun relationship to yield different values between countries or regions? The thesis provides evidence of the importance of considering certain labor market characteristics to explain the differences in the unemployment-output relationship between countries or regions. However, not everything can be explained by the differences in labor legislation in each country, making labor markets more or less flexible in response to cyclical economic fluctuations. There is even evidence suggesting that in some cases, the variable attempting to measure the different levels of labor legislation is not significant in explaining these differences. In addition to the variables already identified by previous literature as explanatory factors for Okun's law (labor productivity and production structure), this thesis adds self-employment, informal employment, employment without social security coverage, and unpaid family work. These variables are crucial for understanding the differences in Okun's law among less developed countries since these characteristics are prevalent in significant proportions, albeit with a heterogeneous distribution. Furthermore, this thesis provides evidence indicating that the choice of the base model for the relationship or various methodological aspects for estimating it also contributes to some variability in the results. Therefore, these should be considered in future research on the subject. Finally, this thesis also offers evidence that how unemployment is measured also influences the unemployment-output relationship. When a portion of unemployment remains "hidden" due to the implementation of some temporary economic policy measure, and official statistics do not reflect it, the Okun relationship appears to weaken or break, while the underlying relationship between economic activity and idle resources remains intact. |
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2024 |
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2024 |
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Estudios sobre la Ley de Okun: Nueva evidenciaPorras Arena, Maria SylvinaEconomíaUnemploymentDesempleoDPGPIBOkun's lawLey de Okun53 Ciencias EconómicasThe extensive literature on Okun's law underscores the significance of this statistical regularity since its discovery in the United States in 1962, both in the realm of economic policy and academia. This is because understanding the unemployment-output relationship allows us to quantify the loss of production attributable to maintaining high unemployment rates. It also enables us to explore the possibility of predicting the impact of economic activity variations on the unemployment rate, and, based on this, evaluate the costs in terms of social welfare implications. A review of this literature reveals a high level of heterogeneity among the estimated coefficients of the relationship for different countries and regions and at different points in time. Consequently, it is impossible to extract the idea of a single value that represents the relationship between unemployment and output for all times and places. So, the question that arises next is: what are the determining factors that cause the Okun relationship to yield different values between countries or regions? The thesis provides evidence of the importance of considering certain labor market characteristics to explain the differences in the unemployment-output relationship between countries or regions. However, not everything can be explained by the differences in labor legislation in each country, making labor markets more or less flexible in response to cyclical economic fluctuations. There is even evidence suggesting that in some cases, the variable attempting to measure the different levels of labor legislation is not significant in explaining these differences. In addition to the variables already identified by previous literature as explanatory factors for Okun's law (labor productivity and production structure), this thesis adds self-employment, informal employment, employment without social security coverage, and unpaid family work. These variables are crucial for understanding the differences in Okun's law among less developed countries since these characteristics are prevalent in significant proportions, albeit with a heterogeneous distribution. Furthermore, this thesis provides evidence indicating that the choice of the base model for the relationship or various methodological aspects for estimating it also contributes to some variability in the results. Therefore, these should be considered in future research on the subject. Finally, this thesis also offers evidence that how unemployment is measured also influences the unemployment-output relationship. When a portion of unemployment remains "hidden" due to the implementation of some temporary economic policy measure, and official statistics do not reflect it, the Okun relationship appears to weaken or break, while the underlying relationship between economic activity and idle resources remains intact.La extensa literatura sobre la ley de Okun da cuenta de la importancia que ha tenido esta regularidad estadística desde su descubrimiento para los Estados Unidos en 1962, tanto en el ámbito de la política económica como en lo académico. Esto es así dado que, conocer la relación desempleo-producto permite por un lado cuantificar la pérdida de producción atribuible al mantenimiento de tasas de paro elevadas, pero también permite indagar sobre la posibilidad de predecir el impacto de las variaciones de la actividad económica sobre la tasa de paro, y a partir de ello evaluar los costos en términos de bienestar social que ello implica. De la revisión de esta literatura se observa un alto nivel de heterogeneidad entre los coeficientes estimados de la relación para distintos países y regiones y en diferentes momentos del tiempo. En consecuencia, resulta imposible extraer de ella la idea de la existencia de un valor único que represente para todo tiempo y lugar la relación entre el desempleo y el producto. Entonces, la pregunta que surge a continuación es ¿cuáles son los factores determinantes de que la relación de Okun arroje valores diferentes entre países o regiones? La tesis aporta evidencia sobre la importancia de tomar en cuenta algunas características de los mercados de trabajo para explicar las diferencias de la relación desempleo-producto entre países o regiones. Sin embargo, no todo puede explicarse por las diferencias en la legislación laboral vigente en cada país haciendo más o menos flexible a los mercados de trabajo ante las variaciones cíclicas de la actividad económica. Incluso hay evidencia que indica que en algunos casos la variable que intenta medir los diferentes niveles de la legislación laboral resulta no significativa para explicar esas diferencias. A las variables ya indicadas por la literatura previa como explicativas de la ley de Okun (la productividad del trabajo y la estructura productiva), esta tesis agrega: el empleo por cuenta propia, el empleo informal, el empleo sin cobertura de la seguridad social y el trabajo familiar no remunerado. Además, estas son variables claves para comprender las diferencias de la ley de Okun entre los países de menor desarrollo, ya que en estos países esas características están presentes en proporciones elevadas, aunque también con una distribución heterogénea. Por otro lado, esta tesis aporta evidencia que indica que la elección del modelo de base de la relación o de los distintos aspectos metodológicos para estimar dicha relación también aportan cierta variabilidad a los resultados, por lo que deberían ser aspectos a tomar en cuenta por la investigación futura sobre el tema. Finalmente, esta tesis también aporta evidencia que indica que la forma en cómo se mide el desempleo también influye en la relación desempleo-producto. Cuando parte del desempleo queda “oculto” por la implementación de alguna medida transitoria de política económica, y las estadísticas oficiales no lo reflejan, la relación de Okun aparenta debilitarse o quebrarse, al mismo tiempo que la relación subyacente entre la actividad económica y los recursos ociosos continúa vigente.Escuela de DoctoradoDoctorado en EconomíaCabo García, Francisco JoséMartín Román, Ángel LuisUniversidad de Valladolid. Escuela de Doctorado2024info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.35376/10324/66321https://uvadoc.uva.es/handle/10324/66321reponame:UVaDOC. Repositorio Documental de la Universidad de Valladolidinstname:Universidad de ValladolidInglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/oai:uvadoc.uva.es:10324/663212026-06-13T12:44:47Z |
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15,301603 |