Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on landslide susceptibility are not fully understood. This study evaluates the influence of LULC on landslide susceptibility and assesses the historic and future LULC changes in a high mountain region. A detailed inventory map showing the distri...

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Autores: Shu, Heping, Hurlimann Ziegler, Marcel|||0000-0003-0119-1438, Molowny, Roberto, Gonzalez Díaz, Marta, Pinyol Guamis, Jordi, Abanco Martínez de Arenzana, Claudia|||0000-0002-2169-5409, Ma, Jinzhu
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/168984
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/168984
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.363
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Landslides--Spain
Slopes
Land use
Cover type
Landslide susceptibility
Modelling
Pyrenees
Esllavissades -- Catalunya
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòls
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repository_id_str
spelling Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward predictionShu, HepingHurlimann Ziegler, Marcel|||0000-0003-0119-1438Molowny, RobertoGonzalez Díaz, MartaPinyol Guamis, JordiAbanco Martínez de Arenzana, Claudia|||0000-0002-2169-5409Ma, JinzhuLandslides--SpainSlopesLand useCover typeLandslide susceptibilityModellingPyreneesEsllavissades -- CatalunyaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòlsThe effects of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on landslide susceptibility are not fully understood. This study evaluates the influence of LULC on landslide susceptibility and assesses the historic and future LULC changes in a high mountain region. A detailed inventory map showing the distribution of landslides was prepared based on the 2013 episode in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain). This inventory showed that LULC clearly affected landslide susceptibility. Both the number of landslides and the landslide density triggered in grassland and meadow was highest (52% and 2.0 landslides/km2). In contrast, the landslide density in areas covered by forest and shrubs was much lower (15% and 0.4 landslides/km2, and 23% and 1.7 landslides/km2, respectively). Historical changes of LULC between 1946 and 2013 were determined by comparing aerial photographs. The results indicated that the forest and shrub areas increased by 68 and 65%, respectively; whereas grassland and scree areas decreased by 33 and 52%. Urban area also increased by 532%, especially between 1990 and 2001. Future LULC was predicted until 2097 using TerrSet software. The results showed that the forest area and urban area increased by 57 and 43%, severally; while shrubs, grassland and scree area decreased by 28, 46 and 78%, respectively. Heuristic and deterministic models were applied to create susceptibility maps, which classified the study area into four susceptibility degrees from very low to high. The maps were validated by the 2013 landslide dataset and showed satisfactory results using receiver operating characteristics curves and density graph method. Then, susceptibility maps until 2097 were calculated by the heuristic model and results revealed that landslide susceptibility will decrease by 48% for high-susceptible areas. In contrast, the areas of very-low susceptibility degree will increase 95%, while medium and low-susceptible areas will be more or less constant. This study only includes the effect of future LULC changes on the landslide susceptibility and does not analyze the future impacts of climate changes and the variation of rainfall conditions. Nevertheless, the results may be used as support for land management guidelines to reduce the risk of slope instabilities.Elsevier20192019-11-0120192019-10-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/168984https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.363reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad http://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 BIA2015-67500-R PERDIDA DE SUELO EN LADERAS BAJO CAMBIO CLIMATICO. PROCESOS FISICOS, MODELACION PREDICTIVA Y POSIBLES ESTRATEGIAS DE MITIGACIONopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/1689842026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
title Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
spellingShingle Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
Shu, Heping
Landslides--Spain
Slopes
Land use
Cover type
Landslide susceptibility
Modelling
Pyrenees
Esllavissades -- Catalunya
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòls
title_short Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
title_full Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
title_fullStr Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
title_full_unstemmed Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
title_sort Relation between land cover and landslide susceptibility in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain): historical aspects, present situation and forward prediction
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Shu, Heping
Hurlimann Ziegler, Marcel|||0000-0003-0119-1438
Molowny, Roberto
Gonzalez Díaz, Marta
Pinyol Guamis, Jordi
Abanco Martínez de Arenzana, Claudia|||0000-0002-2169-5409
Ma, Jinzhu
author Shu, Heping
author_facet Shu, Heping
Hurlimann Ziegler, Marcel|||0000-0003-0119-1438
Molowny, Roberto
Gonzalez Díaz, Marta
Pinyol Guamis, Jordi
Abanco Martínez de Arenzana, Claudia|||0000-0002-2169-5409
Ma, Jinzhu
author_role author
author2 Hurlimann Ziegler, Marcel|||0000-0003-0119-1438
Molowny, Roberto
Gonzalez Díaz, Marta
Pinyol Guamis, Jordi
Abanco Martínez de Arenzana, Claudia|||0000-0002-2169-5409
Ma, Jinzhu
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Landslides--Spain
Slopes
Land use
Cover type
Landslide susceptibility
Modelling
Pyrenees
Esllavissades -- Catalunya
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòls
topic Landslides--Spain
Slopes
Land use
Cover type
Landslide susceptibility
Modelling
Pyrenees
Esllavissades -- Catalunya
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Mecànica de sòls
description The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on landslide susceptibility are not fully understood. This study evaluates the influence of LULC on landslide susceptibility and assesses the historic and future LULC changes in a high mountain region. A detailed inventory map showing the distribution of landslides was prepared based on the 2013 episode in Val d'Aran, Pyrenees (Spain). This inventory showed that LULC clearly affected landslide susceptibility. Both the number of landslides and the landslide density triggered in grassland and meadow was highest (52% and 2.0 landslides/km2). In contrast, the landslide density in areas covered by forest and shrubs was much lower (15% and 0.4 landslides/km2, and 23% and 1.7 landslides/km2, respectively). Historical changes of LULC between 1946 and 2013 were determined by comparing aerial photographs. The results indicated that the forest and shrub areas increased by 68 and 65%, respectively; whereas grassland and scree areas decreased by 33 and 52%. Urban area also increased by 532%, especially between 1990 and 2001. Future LULC was predicted until 2097 using TerrSet software. The results showed that the forest area and urban area increased by 57 and 43%, severally; while shrubs, grassland and scree area decreased by 28, 46 and 78%, respectively. Heuristic and deterministic models were applied to create susceptibility maps, which classified the study area into four susceptibility degrees from very low to high. The maps were validated by the 2013 landslide dataset and showed satisfactory results using receiver operating characteristics curves and density graph method. Then, susceptibility maps until 2097 were calculated by the heuristic model and results revealed that landslide susceptibility will decrease by 48% for high-susceptible areas. In contrast, the areas of very-low susceptibility degree will increase 95%, while medium and low-susceptible areas will be more or less constant. This study only includes the effect of future LULC changes on the landslide susceptibility and does not analyze the future impacts of climate changes and the variation of rainfall conditions. Nevertheless, the results may be used as support for land management guidelines to reduce the risk of slope instabilities.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-11-01
2019
2019-10-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/168984
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.363
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/168984
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.363
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad http://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 BIA2015-67500-R PERDIDA DE SUELO EN LADERAS BAJO CAMBIO CLIMATICO. PROCESOS FISICOS, MODELACION PREDICTIVA Y POSIBLES ESTRATEGIAS DE MITIGACION
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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