Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006

35 Pags., 1 Tabl., 9 Figs. The definitive version is available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Beguería, Santiago, Angulo-Martínez, Marta, Vicente Serrano, Sergio M., El Kenawy, Ahmed M., López-Moreno, Juan I.
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2011
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/42691
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/42691
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:extreme events
Precipitation
Time series analysis
Climate variability
regional climate change
non-stationary extreme value analysis
Iberian Peninsula
Spain
id ES_5b710d5ac47e4f150cf44ff7e5e1587d
oai_identifier_str oai:digital.csic.es:10261/42691
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006Beguería, SantiagoAngulo-Martínez, MartaVicente Serrano, Sergio M.El Kenawy, Ahmed M.López-Moreno, Juan I.extreme eventsPrecipitationTime series analysisClimate variabilityregional climate changenon-stationary extreme value analysisIberian PeninsulaSpain35 Pags., 1 Tabl., 9 Figs. The definitive version is available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088Most applications of the extreme value (EV) theory have assumed stationarity, i.e. the statistical properties of the process do not change over time. However, there is evidence suggesting that the occurrence of extreme events is not stationary but changes naturally, as it has been found for many other climate variables. Of paramount importance for hazard analysis is whether the observed precipitation time series exhibit long-term trends or cycles; such information is also relevant in climate change studies. In this study, the theory of non-stationary extreme value (NSEV) analysis was applied to data series of daily precipitation using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach. A Poisson/generalized Pareto (P/GP) model, in which the model parameters were allowed to vary linearly with time, was fitted to the resulting series of precipitation event's intensity and magnitude. A log-likelihood ratio test was applied to determine the existence of trends in the model parameters. The method was applied to a case study in northeast Spain, comprising a set of 64 daily rainfall series from 1930 to 2006. Statistical significance was achieved in less than 5% of the stations using a linear non-stationary model at the annual scale, indicating that there is no evidence of a generalized trend in extreme precipitation in the study area. At the seasonal scale, however, a significant number of stations along the Mediterranean (Catalonia region) showed a significant decrease of extreme rainfall intensity in winter, while experiencing an increase in spring.This research has been supported by the following projects: CGL2008-00831/BTE, CGL2006-11619/HID, CGL2008-01189/BTE and CGL2008-1083/CLI funded by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; EUROGEOSS (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226487) and ACQWA (FP7-ENV-2007-1-212250) funded by the VII Framework Programme of the European Commission; ‘Las sequías climáticas en la cuenca del Ebro y su respuesta hidrológica’ and ‘La nieve en el Pirineo Aragonés: distribución espacial y su respuesta a las condiciones climáticas’ funded by ‘Obra Social La Caixa’ and the Aragón Government; and ‘Programa de grupos de investigación consolidados’ funded by the Aragón Government.Peer reviewedJohn Wiley & SonsRoyal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)201120112011info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://hdl.handle.net/10261/42691reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226487http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2218info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/426912026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
title Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
spellingShingle Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
Beguería, Santiago
extreme events
Precipitation
Time series analysis
Climate variability
regional climate change
non-stationary extreme value analysis
Iberian Peninsula
Spain
title_short Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
title_full Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
title_fullStr Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
title_full_unstemmed Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
title_sort Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Beguería, Santiago
Angulo-Martínez, Marta
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
López-Moreno, Juan I.
author Beguería, Santiago
author_facet Beguería, Santiago
Angulo-Martínez, Marta
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
López-Moreno, Juan I.
author_role author
author2 Angulo-Martínez, Marta
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
López-Moreno, Juan I.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv extreme events
Precipitation
Time series analysis
Climate variability
regional climate change
non-stationary extreme value analysis
Iberian Peninsula
Spain
topic extreme events
Precipitation
Time series analysis
Climate variability
regional climate change
non-stationary extreme value analysis
Iberian Peninsula
Spain
description 35 Pags., 1 Tabl., 9 Figs. The definitive version is available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011
2011
2011
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/42691
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/42691
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226487
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2218
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869408799636324352
score 15,812429

Registos relacionados