Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk
In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | informe técnico |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2014 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) |
| Repositorio: | Docta Complutense |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/41582 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/41582 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | C58 G12 Realized volatility Volatility of volatility Volatility risk Value-at-risk Forecasting Conditional heteroskedasticity. Econometría (Economía) 5302 Econometría |
| Sumario: | In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly gaussian, this inpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks. |
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