On Deterministic and Stochastic Multiple Pathogen Epidemic Models

In this paper, we consider a stochastic epidemic model with two pathogens. In order to analyze the coexistence of two pathogens, we compute numerically the expectation time until extinction (the mean persistence time), which satisfies a stationary partial differential equation with degenerate variab...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Vadillo Arroyo, Fernando
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Recursos:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/53142
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/53142
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:persistence time
epidemic models
stochastic differential equation
finite element method
Descrição
Resumo:In this paper, we consider a stochastic epidemic model with two pathogens. In order to analyze the coexistence of two pathogens, we compute numerically the expectation time until extinction (the mean persistence time), which satisfies a stationary partial differential equation with degenerate variable coefficients, related to backward Kolmogorov equation. I use the finite element method in order to solve this equation, and we implement it in FreeFem++. The main conclusion of this paper is that the deterministic and stochastic epidemic models differ considerably in predicting coexistence of the two diseases and in the extinction outcome of one of them. Now, the main challenge would be to find an explanation for this result.