Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

Background Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for a...

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Autores: Madaniyazi, Lina, Chung, Yeonseung, Kim, Yoonhee, Tobías, Aurelio, Sheng Ng, Chris Fook, Seposo, Xerxes, Guo, Yuming, Honda, Yasushi, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Hashizume, Masahiro
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/250548
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/250548
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Seasonality
Mortality
Climate change
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3
Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
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spelling Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015Madaniyazi, LinaChung, YeonseungKim, YoonheeTobías, AurelioSheng Ng, Chris FookSeposo, XerxesGuo, YumingHonda, YasushiGasparrini, AntonioArmstrong, BenHashizume, MasahiroSeasonalityMortalityClimate changehttp://metadata.un.org/sdg/3Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all agesTake urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsBackground Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. Results The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Conclusion Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.YC was supported by a Senior Research grant (2019R1A2C1086194) from the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). YK was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP19K17104. AT was supported by the JSPS Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan (Grant S18149). YG was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Grants APP1107107 and APP1163693). AG was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (Grants MR/M022625/1 and MR/R013349/1), by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant NE/R009384/1), and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). YH was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan.Peer reviewedSpringer NatureTobías, Aurelio [0000-0001-6428-6755]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202120212021info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/250548reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/2505482026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
title Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
spellingShingle Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
Madaniyazi, Lina
Seasonality
Mortality
Climate change
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3
Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
title_short Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
title_full Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
title_fullStr Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
title_full_unstemmed Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
title_sort Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Madaniyazi, Lina
Chung, Yeonseung
Kim, Yoonhee
Tobías, Aurelio
Sheng Ng, Chris Fook
Seposo, Xerxes
Guo, Yuming
Honda, Yasushi
Gasparrini, Antonio
Armstrong, Ben
Hashizume, Masahiro
author Madaniyazi, Lina
author_facet Madaniyazi, Lina
Chung, Yeonseung
Kim, Yoonhee
Tobías, Aurelio
Sheng Ng, Chris Fook
Seposo, Xerxes
Guo, Yuming
Honda, Yasushi
Gasparrini, Antonio
Armstrong, Ben
Hashizume, Masahiro
author_role author
author2 Chung, Yeonseung
Kim, Yoonhee
Tobías, Aurelio
Sheng Ng, Chris Fook
Seposo, Xerxes
Guo, Yuming
Honda, Yasushi
Gasparrini, Antonio
Armstrong, Ben
Hashizume, Masahiro
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Tobías, Aurelio [0000-0001-6428-6755]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Seasonality
Mortality
Climate change
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3
Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
topic Seasonality
Mortality
Climate change
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3
Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
description Background Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Methods Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. Results The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Conclusion Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021
2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/250548
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/250548
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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