Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco

Internal variability, multiple emission scenarios, and diferent model responses to anthropogenic forcing are ultimately behind a wide range of uncertainties that arise in climate change projections. Model weighting approaches are generally used to reduce the uncertainty related to the choice of the...

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Autores: Balhane, Saloua, Driouech, Fatima, Chafki, Omar, Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448, Chehbouni, Abdelghani, Moufouma-Okia, Willfran
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repositorio:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/23957
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23957
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Model weighting
Climate models
Climate change
Euro-CORDEX
NEXGDDP
Morocco
Temperature
Precipitation
Extremes
Projected uncertainty
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spelling Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of MoroccoBalhane, SalouaDriouech, FatimaChafki, OmarManzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448 Chehbouni, AbdelghaniMoufouma-Okia, WillfranModel weightingClimate modelsClimate changeEuro-CORDEXNEXGDDPMoroccoTemperaturePrecipitationExtremesProjected uncertaintyInternal variability, multiple emission scenarios, and diferent model responses to anthropogenic forcing are ultimately behind a wide range of uncertainties that arise in climate change projections. Model weighting approaches are generally used to reduce the uncertainty related to the choice of the climate model. This study compares three multi-model combination approaches: a simple arithmetic mean and two recently developed weighting-based alternatives. One method takes into account models' performance only and the other accounts for models' performance and independence. The efect of these three multi-model approaches is assessed for projected changes of mean precipitation and temperature as well as four extreme indices over northern Morocco. We analyze diferent widely used high-resolution ensembles issued from statistical (NEXGDDP) and dynamical (Euro-CORDEX and bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX) downscaling. For the latter, we also investigate the potential added value that bias adjustment may have over the raw dynamical simulations. Results show that model weighting can signifcantly reduce the spread of the future projections increasing their reliability. Nearly all model ensembles project a signifcant warming over the studied region (more intense inland than near the coasts), together with longer and more severe dry periods. In most cases, the diferent weighting methods lead to almost identical spatial patterns of climate change, indicating that the uncertainty due to the choice of multi-model combination strategy is nearly negligible.SpringerUniversidad de Cantabria20222022-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10902/23957Climate Dynamics, 2022, 58(1-2), 389-404reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/239572026-06-02T12:39:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
title Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
spellingShingle Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
Balhane, Saloua
Model weighting
Climate models
Climate change
Euro-CORDEX
NEXGDDP
Morocco
Temperature
Precipitation
Extremes
Projected uncertainty
title_short Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
title_full Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
title_fullStr Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
title_full_unstemmed Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
title_sort Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Balhane, Saloua
Driouech, Fatima
Chafki, Omar
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Chehbouni, Abdelghani
Moufouma-Okia, Willfran
author Balhane, Saloua
author_facet Balhane, Saloua
Driouech, Fatima
Chafki, Omar
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Chehbouni, Abdelghani
Moufouma-Okia, Willfran
author_role author
author2 Driouech, Fatima
Chafki, Omar
Manzanas, Rodrigo|||0000-0002-0001-3448
Chehbouni, Abdelghani
Moufouma-Okia, Willfran
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Model weighting
Climate models
Climate change
Euro-CORDEX
NEXGDDP
Morocco
Temperature
Precipitation
Extremes
Projected uncertainty
topic Model weighting
Climate models
Climate change
Euro-CORDEX
NEXGDDP
Morocco
Temperature
Precipitation
Extremes
Projected uncertainty
description Internal variability, multiple emission scenarios, and diferent model responses to anthropogenic forcing are ultimately behind a wide range of uncertainties that arise in climate change projections. Model weighting approaches are generally used to reduce the uncertainty related to the choice of the climate model. This study compares three multi-model combination approaches: a simple arithmetic mean and two recently developed weighting-based alternatives. One method takes into account models' performance only and the other accounts for models' performance and independence. The efect of these three multi-model approaches is assessed for projected changes of mean precipitation and temperature as well as four extreme indices over northern Morocco. We analyze diferent widely used high-resolution ensembles issued from statistical (NEXGDDP) and dynamical (Euro-CORDEX and bias-adjusted Euro-CORDEX) downscaling. For the latter, we also investigate the potential added value that bias adjustment may have over the raw dynamical simulations. Results show that model weighting can signifcantly reduce the spread of the future projections increasing their reliability. Nearly all model ensembles project a signifcant warming over the studied region (more intense inland than near the coasts), together with longer and more severe dry periods. In most cases, the diferent weighting methods lead to almost identical spatial patterns of climate change, indicating that the uncertainty due to the choice of multi-model combination strategy is nearly negligible.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23957
url http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23957
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Climate Dynamics, 2022, 58(1-2), 389-404
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300724

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