Joint models for longitudinal counts and left-truncated time-to event data with applications to health insurance

Aging societies have given rise to important challenges in the field of health insurance. Elderly policyholders need to be provided with fair premiums based on their individual health status, whereas insurance companies want to plan for the potential costs of tackling lifetimes above mean expectatio...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Piulachs, Xavier, Alemany Leira, Ramon, Guillén, Montserrat|||0000-0002-2644-6268, Rizopoulos, Dimitris
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:183312
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/183312
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.2436/20.8080.02.63
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Joint models
Panel count data
Left truncation
Bayesian framework
Health insurance
Descripción
Sumario:Aging societies have given rise to important challenges in the field of health insurance. Elderly policyholders need to be provided with fair premiums based on their individual health status, whereas insurance companies want to plan for the potential costs of tackling lifetimes above mean expectations. In this article, we focus on a large cohort of policyholders in Barcelona (Spain), aged 65 years and over. A shared-parameter joint model is proposed to analyse the relationship between annual demand for emergency claims and time until death outcomes, which are subject to left truncation. We compare different functional forms of the association between both processes, and, furthermore, we illustrate how the fitted model provides time-dynamic predictions of survival probabilities. The parameter estimation is performed under the Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.