Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds

In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to...

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Autores: Ciaravino, Giovanna, García Saenz, Ariadna, Cabras, S., Allepuz, Alberto, Casal, J., García-Bocanegra, Ignacio, Koeijer, A. De, Gubbins, S., Saez, J. L., Cano Terriza, D., Napp, Sebastian
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/122719
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/122719
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Tuberculosi en els animals
Espanya
Tuberculosis in animals
Spain
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network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herdsCiaravino, GiovannaGarcía Saenz, AriadnaCabras, S.Allepuz, AlbertoCasal, J.García-Bocanegra, IgnacioKoeijer, A. DeGubbins, S.Saez, J. L.Cano Terriza, D.Napp, SebastianTuberculosi en els animalsEspanyaTuberculosis in animalsSpainIn Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd transmission potential Number" (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (beta), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (alpha), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (alpha1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular beta and alpha) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.Elsevier2018info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/122719Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003Epidemics, 2018, vol. 23, p. 110-120http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003cc by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2018http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1227192026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
spellingShingle Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
Ciaravino, Giovanna
Tuberculosi en els animals
Espanya
Tuberculosis in animals
Spain
title_short Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_full Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_fullStr Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
title_sort Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ciaravino, Giovanna
García Saenz, Ariadna
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, Alberto
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, Ignacio
Koeijer, A. De
Gubbins, S.
Saez, J. L.
Cano Terriza, D.
Napp, Sebastian
author Ciaravino, Giovanna
author_facet Ciaravino, Giovanna
García Saenz, Ariadna
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, Alberto
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, Ignacio
Koeijer, A. De
Gubbins, S.
Saez, J. L.
Cano Terriza, D.
Napp, Sebastian
author_role author
author2 García Saenz, Ariadna
Cabras, S.
Allepuz, Alberto
Casal, J.
García-Bocanegra, Ignacio
Koeijer, A. De
Gubbins, S.
Saez, J. L.
Cano Terriza, D.
Napp, Sebastian
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Tuberculosi en els animals
Espanya
Tuberculosis in animals
Spain
topic Tuberculosi en els animals
Espanya
Tuberculosis in animals
Spain
description In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd transmission potential Number" (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (beta), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (alpha), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (alpha1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular beta and alpha) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/122719
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/122719
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003
Epidemics, 2018, vol. 23, p. 110-120
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2018.01.003
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2018
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2018
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (ISGlobal)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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