Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia

While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Joseph-Duran, Bernat, Serra-Compte, Albert, Sàrrias, Miquel, Gonzalez, Susana, López Codina, Daniel|||0000-0002-0408-4526, Prats Soler, Clara|||0000-0002-1398-7559, Català Sabaté, Martí|||0000-0003-3308-9905, Álvarez Lacalle, Enrique|||0000-0001-6824-6857, Alonso Muñoz, Sergio|||0000-0002-3989-8757, Arnaldos, Marina
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/386069
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/386069
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19 (Disease)
Diseases -- Mathematical models
Sewage -- Sampling
Water -- Sampling
Epidemiology
Epidemiologia -- Models matemàtics
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Aigües residuals--Mostreig
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Ciències de la salut
Descripción
Sumario:While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.

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