Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa

This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Gomez Ruiz, Marcela, Li Donni, Paolo, Marino, Maria
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/228359
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/228359
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Dinàmica de grups
Reivindicacions socials
Violència política
Política econòmica
Àfrica
Manifestacions
Group dynamicss
Social claims
Political violence
Economic policy
Africa
Demonstrations
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spelling Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in AfricaGomez Ruiz, MarcelaLi Donni, PaoloMarino, MariaDinàmica de grupsReivindicacions socialsViolència políticaPolítica econòmicaÀfricaManifestacionsGroup dynamicssSocial claimsPolitical violenceEconomic policyAfricaDemonstrationsThis study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.Elsevier2025info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/228359Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745European Journal of Political Economy, 2025, vol. 90https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745cc-by (c) Gomez Ruiz et al., 2025http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/2283592026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
title Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
spellingShingle Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
Gomez Ruiz, Marcela
Dinàmica de grups
Reivindicacions socials
Violència política
Política econòmica
Àfrica
Manifestacions
Group dynamicss
Social claims
Political violence
Economic policy
Africa
Demonstrations
title_short Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
title_full Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
title_fullStr Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
title_sort Dynamics of protest: Understanding violent and nonviolent protest in Africa
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gomez Ruiz, Marcela
Li Donni, Paolo
Marino, Maria
author Gomez Ruiz, Marcela
author_facet Gomez Ruiz, Marcela
Li Donni, Paolo
Marino, Maria
author_role author
author2 Li Donni, Paolo
Marino, Maria
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Dinàmica de grups
Reivindicacions socials
Violència política
Política econòmica
Àfrica
Manifestacions
Group dynamicss
Social claims
Political violence
Economic policy
Africa
Demonstrations
topic Dinàmica de grups
Reivindicacions socials
Violència política
Política econòmica
Àfrica
Manifestacions
Group dynamicss
Social claims
Political violence
Economic policy
Africa
Demonstrations
description This study introduces a novel empirical strategy to analyse the dynamic occurrence of violent and nonviolent protests (VP and NVP) in Africa. The strategy allows us to jointly model VP and NVP, accounting for both observed variables and unobserved time-varying factors. In doing so, we offer insights into the persistence of protest (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the same type of protests over time), cross-effects between the two protest types (i.e., the influence of one type of protest on the dynamics of the other type over time), as well as protest determinants. Our findings, based on the Social Conflict Analysis Dataset (SCAD), reveal strong persistence in both VP and NVP, with past protests significantly correlating with future ones. Additionally, we show that violent and nonviolent protests are dynamically interlinked, with cross-effects between the two events. Some determinants, like repression, correlate with both VP and NVP, while others, such as education and technology, influence only one type of protest. Finally, by controlling for persistence, we explore how unobserved time-varying factors shape protest dynamics in Africa.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/228359
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/228359
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745
European Journal of Political Economy, 2025, vol. 90
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102745
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Gomez Ruiz et al., 2025
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Gomez Ruiz et al., 2025
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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