Who is exposed to pre-election polls during the campaign? Strategic vote and electoral competition in Spain (2011-2019)
The increased relevance of pre-election polls in campaigns raises an interesting debate about their effects on voting. This article analyzes the type of voters who are exposed to the polls and the impact of the latter on those voters’ final decision. Based on data from post-electoral surveys by the...
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia |
| Repositorio: | e-spacio. Repositorio Institucional de la UNED |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:e-spacio.uned.es:20.500.14468/12797 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14468/12797 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | sondeos electorales efectos de los sondeos voto estratégico circunscripción electoral comunicación política España |
| Sumario: | The increased relevance of pre-election polls in campaigns raises an interesting debate about their effects on voting. This article analyzes the type of voters who are exposed to the polls and the impact of the latter on those voters’ final decision. Based on data from post-electoral surveys by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) for the general elections held in Spain in November 2011, December 2015 and April 2019, a statistical analysis model is presented to observe the people most likely to be exposed to polls and how the size of the constituency and internal electoral competition affect this consumption. The results show a transformation of voting decision mechanisms, that have been used as a source of information to develop a strategic vote, especially in the April 2019 elections. With the parliamentary entry of the right-wing populist party, VOX, and the consolidation of polarized pluralism in Spain, the data reveal a higher exposure in provinces with fewer seats and where electoral competition between parties is greater. |
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