Tuberculosis in Barcelona: A Predictive model Based on Temporal Series
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to cause millions of new cases and deaths worldwide every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently estimated that in 2007 9,273,000 cases (incidence 139/100.000 inhabitants) and 1,772,000 deaths were attributed to TB and, in the previous year, the absolute f...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2009 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau) |
| Repositorio: | r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com:p15229 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=15229 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Tuberculosis incidence forecast piecewise regression |
| Sumario: | Tuberculosis (TB) continues to cause millions of new cases and deaths worldwide every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently estimated that in 2007 9,273,000 cases (incidence 139/100.000 inhabitants) and 1,772,000 deaths were attributed to TB and, in the previous year, the absolute figure was slightly lower (9,240,000 cases) and the incidence somewhat higher (140/100,000), making it difficult to determine whether there was a reduction or not. The objective of this study was to apply fovecasting models to TB, differentiating between indigenous and immigrant subjects, in a city in which the annual number of cases has been recorded since 1987. Adjusted segmented regression (piecewise regression) was applied to the series of new cases in the indigenous and immigrant populations of Barcelona. The evolution of TB differed radically; whereas in the indigenous population there was a downward trend, coinciding with the reduction in new of cases of AIDS, in immigrants there was an upward trend. The estimated number of new cases in 2009 was 168 (95% CI 109 227) in indigenous subjects; and 227 (95% CI, 180 - 275) in immigrants. |
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