Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends

21 Pags.- 11 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Beguería, Santiago, Tomás-Burguera, Miquel, Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto, Barriopedro, David, Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/393980
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/393980
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Extreme precipitation
Trend analysis
Climate change
Non-stationary extreme value theory
Peaks over threshold
Atmospheric dynamics
Spain
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
precipitation intensity
climatic data
climate change
atmospheric circulation
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spelling Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trendsBeguería, SantiagoTomás-Burguera, MiquelSerrano-Notivoli, RobertoBarriopedro, DavidVicente Serrano, Sergio M.Extreme precipitationTrend analysisClimate changeNon-stationary extreme value theoryPeaks over thresholdAtmospheric dynamicsSpainhttp://metadata.un.org/sdg/13Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsprecipitation intensityclimatic dataclimate changeatmospheric circulation21 Pags.- 11 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.The analysis of temporal changes in extreme event attributes, specifically magnitude and frequency, is hindered by the rarity and exceptional nature of the events being studied. The non-stationary extreme value theory (NSEVT) provides a well-established framework for assessing how extreme event probabilities vary as a function of one or more covariates. This study employs NSEVT to investigate the recent evolution and primary drivers of extreme precipitation in Spain, utilizing indices of three large-scale modes of atmospheric circulation and time as covariates. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold model is applied to an observational network comprising 341 weather stations over the period 1951–2020. The results demonstrate that a multivariate model accounting for the influences of all covariates fits the data significantly better than simpler, univariate and stationary models in the majority of stations. The multivariate model effectively captures the spatial and temporal marginal influences of atmospheric dynamics on the magnitude-frequency relationship of different attributes of extreme precipitation events, including daily peak intensity and accumulated event precipitation. In contrast, the marginal influence of time is relatively small and sparse, lacking a spatially coherent pattern. Notably, the multivariate model reveals larger temporal influences than those inferred from the univariate model, with more stations displaying significant decreases than increases in extreme precipitation event attributes. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple covariates and non-stationarity when analyzing temporal changes in extreme events.This research work has been funded by the Spanish National Research Agency (MCIN/AEI) through project PID2020-116860RB-C22 and R.S.-N. personal grant RYC2021-034330-I, by the European Commission - NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094) through CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform “Clima (PTI Clima) / Development of Operational Climate Services”, and by Aragón Government through grant E02-20R.Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature.Peer reviewedSpringerAgencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)European CommissionGobierno de AragónBeguería, Santiago [0000-0002-3974-2947]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/393980reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-025-02961-xSíinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3939802026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
title Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
spellingShingle Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
Beguería, Santiago
Extreme precipitation
Trend analysis
Climate change
Non-stationary extreme value theory
Peaks over threshold
Atmospheric dynamics
Spain
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
precipitation intensity
climatic data
climate change
atmospheric circulation
title_short Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
title_full Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
title_fullStr Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
title_full_unstemmed Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
title_sort Evolution of extreme precipitation in Spain: contribution of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Beguería, Santiago
Tomás-Burguera, Miquel
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Barriopedro, David
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
author Beguería, Santiago
author_facet Beguería, Santiago
Tomás-Burguera, Miquel
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Barriopedro, David
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
author_role author
author2 Tomás-Burguera, Miquel
Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto
Barriopedro, David
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
European Commission
Gobierno de Aragón
Beguería, Santiago [0000-0002-3974-2947]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Extreme precipitation
Trend analysis
Climate change
Non-stationary extreme value theory
Peaks over threshold
Atmospheric dynamics
Spain
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
precipitation intensity
climatic data
climate change
atmospheric circulation
topic Extreme precipitation
Trend analysis
Climate change
Non-stationary extreme value theory
Peaks over threshold
Atmospheric dynamics
Spain
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
precipitation intensity
climatic data
climate change
atmospheric circulation
description 21 Pags.- 11 Figs.- 3 Tabls. Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study. © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/393980
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/393980
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-025-02961-x
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812429

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