Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Forensic Science International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Cha...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ramos Castro, Daniel, González Rodríguez, Joaquín
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2013
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Repositorio:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/663690
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10486/663690
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Accuracy
Calibration
Empirical Cross-Entropy
Evidence evaluation
Likelihood ratio
Performance
Informática
Telecomunicaciones
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spelling Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratiosRamos Castro, DanielGonzález Rodríguez, JoaquínAccuracyCalibrationEmpirical Cross-EntropyEvidence evaluationLikelihood ratioPerformanceInformáticaTelecomunicacionesThis is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Forensic Science International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Forensic Science International, 230, 1-3, (2013) DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014Proceedings of the EAFS 2012 6th European Academy of Forensic Science Conference The Hague, 20-24 August 2012Calculation of likelihood ratios (LR) in evidence evaluation still presents major challenges in many forensic disciplines: for instance, an incorrect selection of databases, a bad choice of statistical models, low quantity and bad quality of the evidence are factors that may lead to likelihood ratios supporting the wrong proposition in a given case. However, measuring performance of LR values is not straightforward, and adequate metrics should be defined and used. With this objective, in this work we describe the concept of calibration, a property of a set of LR values. We highlight that some desirable behavior of LR values happens if they are well calibrated. Moreover, we propose a tool for representing performance, the Empirical Cross-Entropy (ECE) plot, showing that it can explicitly measure calibration of LR values. We finally describe some examples using speech evidence, where the usefulness of ECE plots and the measurement of calibration is shown.Elsevier BVDepartamento de Tecnología Electrónica y de las ComunicacionesEscuela Politécnica SuperiorAnálisis y Tratamiento de Voz y Señales Biométricas (ING EPS-002)20132013-07-10research articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10486/663690https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014reponame:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAMinstname:Universidad Autónoma de MadridInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/6636902026-06-23T12:46:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
title Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
spellingShingle Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
Ramos Castro, Daniel
Accuracy
Calibration
Empirical Cross-Entropy
Evidence evaluation
Likelihood ratio
Performance
Informática
Telecomunicaciones
title_short Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
title_full Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
title_fullStr Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
title_full_unstemmed Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
title_sort Reliable support: Measuring calibration of likelihood ratios
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ramos Castro, Daniel
González Rodríguez, Joaquín
author Ramos Castro, Daniel
author_facet Ramos Castro, Daniel
González Rodríguez, Joaquín
author_role author
author2 González Rodríguez, Joaquín
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Tecnología Electrónica y de las Comunicaciones
Escuela Politécnica Superior
Análisis y Tratamiento de Voz y Señales Biométricas (ING EPS-002)
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Accuracy
Calibration
Empirical Cross-Entropy
Evidence evaluation
Likelihood ratio
Performance
Informática
Telecomunicaciones
topic Accuracy
Calibration
Empirical Cross-Entropy
Evidence evaluation
Likelihood ratio
Performance
Informática
Telecomunicaciones
description This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Forensic Science International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Forensic Science International, 230, 1-3, (2013) DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013
2013-07-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv research article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10486/663690
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014
url http://hdl.handle.net/10486/663690
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.04.014
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier BV
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier BV
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
instname:Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
instname_str Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
reponame_str Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
collection Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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