The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability

The atmosphere’s chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dynamical systems theory to descr...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Faranda, Davide, Álvarez Castro, María del Carmen, Messori, Gabriele, Rodrigues, David, Yiou, Pascal
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Pablo de Olavide (UPO)
Repositorio:RIO. Repositorio Institucional Olavide
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:rio.upo.es:10433/22865
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/10433/22865
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Hammam effect
Climate dynamics
Dynamical systems
Predictability
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spelling The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictabilityFaranda, DavideÁlvarez Castro, María del CarmenMessori, GabrieleRodrigues, DavidYiou, PascalHammam effectClimate dynamicsDynamical systemsPredictabilityThe atmosphere’s chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dynamical systems theory to describe the atmospheric circulation and infer the dynamical properties of the climate system. Specifically, we evaluate the changes in the sub-seasonal predictability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic for the historical period and under anthropogenic forcing, using centennial reanalyses and CMIP5 simulations. For the future period, most datasets point to an increase in the atmosphere’s predictability. AMIP simulations with 4K warmer oceans and 4 × atmospheric CO2 concentrations highlight the prominent role of a warmer ocean in driving this increase. We term this the hammam effect. Such effect is linked to enhanced zonal atmospheric patterns, which are more predictable than meridional configurations.Springer Nature20252025-01-3020192019-03-2120192019-03-21journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/10433/22865reponame:RIO. Repositorio Institucional Olavideinstname:Universidad Pablo de Olavide (UPO)InglésengEuropean Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Seventh Framework Programme 338965open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:rio.upo.es:10433/228652026-06-13T12:46:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
title The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
spellingShingle The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
Faranda, Davide
Hammam effect
Climate dynamics
Dynamical systems
Predictability
title_short The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
title_full The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
title_fullStr The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
title_full_unstemmed The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
title_sort The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Faranda, Davide
Álvarez Castro, María del Carmen
Messori, Gabriele
Rodrigues, David
Yiou, Pascal
author Faranda, Davide
author_facet Faranda, Davide
Álvarez Castro, María del Carmen
Messori, Gabriele
Rodrigues, David
Yiou, Pascal
author_role author
author2 Álvarez Castro, María del Carmen
Messori, Gabriele
Rodrigues, David
Yiou, Pascal
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Hammam effect
Climate dynamics
Dynamical systems
Predictability
topic Hammam effect
Climate dynamics
Dynamical systems
Predictability
description The atmosphere’s chaotic nature limits its short-term predictability. Furthermore, there is little knowledge on how the difficulty of forecasting weather may be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Here, we address this question by employing metrics issued from dynamical systems theory to describe the atmospheric circulation and infer the dynamical properties of the climate system. Specifically, we evaluate the changes in the sub-seasonal predictability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic for the historical period and under anthropogenic forcing, using centennial reanalyses and CMIP5 simulations. For the future period, most datasets point to an increase in the atmosphere’s predictability. AMIP simulations with 4K warmer oceans and 4 × atmospheric CO2 concentrations highlight the prominent role of a warmer ocean in driving this increase. We term this the hammam effect. Such effect is linked to enhanced zonal atmospheric patterns, which are more predictable than meridional configurations.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-03-21
2019
2019-03-21
2025
2025-01-30
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10433/22865
url https://hdl.handle.net/10433/22865
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Seventh Framework Programme 338965
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RIO. Repositorio Institucional Olavide
instname:Universidad Pablo de Olavide (UPO)
instname_str Universidad Pablo de Olavide (UPO)
reponame_str RIO. Repositorio Institucional Olavide
collection RIO. Repositorio Institucional Olavide
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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