MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with obser...
| Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Publication Date: | 2015 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| Repository: | Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ddd.uab.cat:204639 |
| Online Access: | https://ddd.uab.cat/record/204639 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
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MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in EuropeSofiev, MikhailBerger, Uwe E.|||0000-0002-9265-2131Prank, Marje|||0000-0002-4280-8898Vira, JuliusArteta, JoaquimBelmonte, Jordina|||0000-0002-6419-9595Bergmann, Karl-Christian|||0000-0002-0306-9922Chéroux, FrançoiseElbern, Hendrik|||0000-0002-5746-4506Friese, ElmarGalan Soldevilla, CarmenGehrig, Regula|||0000-0002-8223-9482Khvorostyanov, DmitryKranenburg, Richard|||0000-0001-5856-1546Kumar, Ujjwal|||0000-0002-9422-8780Marécal, Virginie|||0000-0003-1077-909XMeleux, Frederik|||0000-0002-3263-525XMenut, Laurent|||0000-0001-9776-0812Pessi, Anna Mari|||0000-0003-2138-523XRobertson, Lennart|||0000-0003-2738-5556Sozinova, Olga|||0000-0001-9725-7790Rodinkova, Victoria|||0000-0003-0741-1104Saarto, Annika|||0000-0002-1568-3495Segers, Arjo|||0000-0002-1319-0195Severova, Elena|||0000-0002-0547-5625Sauliene, Ingrida|||0000-0003-0250-1127Siljamo, PilviSteensen, Birthe Marie|||0000-0001-9664-1635Teinemaa, Erik|||0000-0003-2467-6497Thibaudon, Michel|||0000-0002-3549-5408Peuch, Vincent-Henri|||0000-0003-1396-0505This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting. 22015-01-0120152015-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/204639https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengEuropean Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 283576open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, la comunicació pública de l'obra i la creació d'obres derivades, fins i tot amb finalitats comercials, sempre i quan es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:2046392026-06-06T12:50:31Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| title |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| spellingShingle |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe Sofiev, Mikhail |
| title_short |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| title_full |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| title_fullStr |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| title_sort |
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Sofiev, Mikhail Berger, Uwe E.|||0000-0002-9265-2131 Prank, Marje|||0000-0002-4280-8898 Vira, Julius Arteta, Joaquim Belmonte, Jordina|||0000-0002-6419-9595 Bergmann, Karl-Christian|||0000-0002-0306-9922 Chéroux, Françoise Elbern, Hendrik|||0000-0002-5746-4506 Friese, Elmar Galan Soldevilla, Carmen Gehrig, Regula|||0000-0002-8223-9482 Khvorostyanov, Dmitry Kranenburg, Richard|||0000-0001-5856-1546 Kumar, Ujjwal|||0000-0002-9422-8780 Marécal, Virginie|||0000-0003-1077-909X Meleux, Frederik|||0000-0002-3263-525X Menut, Laurent|||0000-0001-9776-0812 Pessi, Anna Mari|||0000-0003-2138-523X Robertson, Lennart|||0000-0003-2738-5556 Sozinova, Olga|||0000-0001-9725-7790 Rodinkova, Victoria|||0000-0003-0741-1104 Saarto, Annika|||0000-0002-1568-3495 Segers, Arjo|||0000-0002-1319-0195 Severova, Elena|||0000-0002-0547-5625 Sauliene, Ingrida|||0000-0003-0250-1127 Siljamo, Pilvi Steensen, Birthe Marie|||0000-0001-9664-1635 Teinemaa, Erik|||0000-0003-2467-6497 Thibaudon, Michel|||0000-0002-3549-5408 Peuch, Vincent-Henri|||0000-0003-1396-0505 |
| author |
Sofiev, Mikhail |
| author_facet |
Sofiev, Mikhail Berger, Uwe E.|||0000-0002-9265-2131 Prank, Marje|||0000-0002-4280-8898 Vira, Julius Arteta, Joaquim Belmonte, Jordina|||0000-0002-6419-9595 Bergmann, Karl-Christian|||0000-0002-0306-9922 Chéroux, Françoise Elbern, Hendrik|||0000-0002-5746-4506 Friese, Elmar Galan Soldevilla, Carmen Gehrig, Regula|||0000-0002-8223-9482 Khvorostyanov, Dmitry Kranenburg, Richard|||0000-0001-5856-1546 Kumar, Ujjwal|||0000-0002-9422-8780 Marécal, Virginie|||0000-0003-1077-909X Meleux, Frederik|||0000-0002-3263-525X Menut, Laurent|||0000-0001-9776-0812 Pessi, Anna Mari|||0000-0003-2138-523X Robertson, Lennart|||0000-0003-2738-5556 Sozinova, Olga|||0000-0001-9725-7790 Rodinkova, Victoria|||0000-0003-0741-1104 Saarto, Annika|||0000-0002-1568-3495 Segers, Arjo|||0000-0002-1319-0195 Severova, Elena|||0000-0002-0547-5625 Sauliene, Ingrida|||0000-0003-0250-1127 Siljamo, Pilvi Steensen, Birthe Marie|||0000-0001-9664-1635 Teinemaa, Erik|||0000-0003-2467-6497 Thibaudon, Michel|||0000-0002-3549-5408 Peuch, Vincent-Henri|||0000-0003-1396-0505 |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Berger, Uwe E.|||0000-0002-9265-2131 Prank, Marje|||0000-0002-4280-8898 Vira, Julius Arteta, Joaquim Belmonte, Jordina|||0000-0002-6419-9595 Bergmann, Karl-Christian|||0000-0002-0306-9922 Chéroux, Françoise Elbern, Hendrik|||0000-0002-5746-4506 Friese, Elmar Galan Soldevilla, Carmen Gehrig, Regula|||0000-0002-8223-9482 Khvorostyanov, Dmitry Kranenburg, Richard|||0000-0001-5856-1546 Kumar, Ujjwal|||0000-0002-9422-8780 Marécal, Virginie|||0000-0003-1077-909X Meleux, Frederik|||0000-0002-3263-525X Menut, Laurent|||0000-0001-9776-0812 Pessi, Anna Mari|||0000-0003-2138-523X Robertson, Lennart|||0000-0003-2738-5556 Sozinova, Olga|||0000-0001-9725-7790 Rodinkova, Victoria|||0000-0003-0741-1104 Saarto, Annika|||0000-0002-1568-3495 Segers, Arjo|||0000-0002-1319-0195 Severova, Elena|||0000-0002-0547-5625 Sauliene, Ingrida|||0000-0003-0250-1127 Siljamo, Pilvi Steensen, Birthe Marie|||0000-0001-9664-1635 Teinemaa, Erik|||0000-0003-2467-6497 Thibaudon, Michel|||0000-0002-3549-5408 Peuch, Vincent-Henri|||0000-0003-1396-0505 |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| description |
This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting. |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2 2015-01-01 2015 2015-01-01 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
Article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 VoR http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
| dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| format |
article |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/204639 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015 |
| url |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/204639 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
Inglés eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv |
Inglés |
| language |
eng |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
European Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 283576 |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
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Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
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Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
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Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
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