Stagnation traps

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth t...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Benigno, Gianluca, Fornaro, Luca
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:10230/37293
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/37293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx063
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Secular stagnation
Liquidity traps
Endogenous growth
Monetary policy
Multiple equilibria
Hysteresis
Descripción
Sumario:We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth depresses aggregate demand and pushes the policy rate against the zero lower bound, while growth is weak because low aggregate demand results in low profits, limiting firms’ investment in innovation. Aggressive policies aiming at restoring growth, such as subsidies to investment, can successfully lead the economy out of a stagnation trap by generating a regime shift in agents’ growth expectations.