On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league

We consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this speci...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio, Núñez-Antón, Vicente
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2099/11242
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2099/11242
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Mathematical statistics
Monte Carlo simulations
Multinomial distribution
Prediction
Soccer league
Estadística matemàtica
Estadística matemàtica -- Aplicacions
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inference
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P Applications
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
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spelling On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer leagueDíaz-Emparanza, IgnacioNúñez-Antón, VicenteMathematical statisticsMonte Carlo simulationsMultinomial distributionPredictionSoccer leagueEstadística matemàticaEstadística matemàtica -- AplicacionsClassificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inferenceClassificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P ApplicationsÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàticaWe consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this specific problem and how to approach it after reading that some soccer coaches indicate that a team in the first division guarantees its staying in that division if it has a total of 42 points at the end of the regular season. This problem differs from the typical probability estimation problem because we only know the actual cumulative score a given team has at some point during the regular season. Under this setting a series of different assumptions can be made to predict the probability of interest at the end of the season. We describe the specific theoretical probability model using the multinomial distribution and, then, introduce two approximations to compute the probability of interest, as well as the exact method. The different proposed methods are then evaluated and also applied to the example that motivated them. One interesting result is that the predicted probabilities can then be dynamically evaluated by using data from the current soccer competition.Peer ReviewedInstitut d'Estadística de Catalunya20102010-01-0120112011-11-02journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2099/11242reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2099/112422026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
title On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
spellingShingle On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio
Mathematical statistics
Monte Carlo simulations
Multinomial distribution
Prediction
Soccer league
Estadística matemàtica
Estadística matemàtica -- Aplicacions
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inference
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P Applications
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
title_short On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
title_full On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
title_fullStr On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
title_full_unstemmed On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
title_sort On the use of simulation methods to compute probabilities: application to the first division Spanish soccer league
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio
Núñez-Antón, Vicente
author Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio
author_facet Díaz-Emparanza, Ignacio
Núñez-Antón, Vicente
author_role author
author2 Núñez-Antón, Vicente
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Mathematical statistics
Monte Carlo simulations
Multinomial distribution
Prediction
Soccer league
Estadística matemàtica
Estadística matemàtica -- Aplicacions
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inference
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P Applications
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
topic Mathematical statistics
Monte Carlo simulations
Multinomial distribution
Prediction
Soccer league
Estadística matemàtica
Estadística matemàtica -- Aplicacions
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inference
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P Applications
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
description We consider the problem of using the points a given team has in the First Division Spanish Soccer League to estimate its probabilities of achieving a specific objective, such as, for example, staying in the first division or playing the European Champions League. We started thinking about this specific problem and how to approach it after reading that some soccer coaches indicate that a team in the first division guarantees its staying in that division if it has a total of 42 points at the end of the regular season. This problem differs from the typical probability estimation problem because we only know the actual cumulative score a given team has at some point during the regular season. Under this setting a series of different assumptions can be made to predict the probability of interest at the end of the season. We describe the specific theoretical probability model using the multinomial distribution and, then, introduce two approximations to compute the probability of interest, as well as the exact method. The different proposed methods are then evaluated and also applied to the example that motivated them. One interesting result is that the predicted probabilities can then be dynamically evaluated by using data from the current soccer competition.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2010-01-01
2011
2011-11-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2099/11242
url https://hdl.handle.net/2099/11242
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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