Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While su...

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Authors: Sandri, Laura, Costa, Antonio, Selva, Jacopo, Tonini, Roberto, Macedonio, Giovanni, Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366, Sulpizio, Roberto
Format: article
Publication Date:2016
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/87532
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/87532
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep24271
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic hazard analysis
Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA)
Hazard assessment
Volcanic ash
Quantitative study
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònica
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spelling Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoesSandri, LauraCosta, AntonioSelva, JacopoTonini, RobertoMacedonio, GiovanniFolch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366Sulpizio, RobertoVolcanic activity predictionVolcanic hazard analysisProbabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA)Hazard assessmentVolcanic ashQuantitative studyActivitat volcànica--PrevisióÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònicaAssessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.This work was partially supported by the MED-SUV Project funded by the European Union (FP7 Grant Agreement n.308665), the “Futuro in Ricerca 2008 FIRB” ByMuR Project [RBFR0880SR] funded by MIUR (the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research), and the DPC-INGV V1 (2013–2015) Project, funded by DPC (the Italian Department of Civil Protection) within the agreement between DPC and INGV. Background roadmap, terrain or satellite images in all the pictures were downloaded from Google Maps. The FALL3D simulations have been run at BSC using the MareNostrum supercomputer. We are very grateful to Mary Anne Thompson for providing us with helpful comments. We wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their suggestions that significantly improved the quality of the manuscript.Peer ReviewedNature Publishing Group20162016-04-1220162016-05-31journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/87532https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep2427127067389reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102 Seventh Framework Programme 308665 MEDiterranean SUpersite Volcanoesopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/875322026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
title Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
spellingShingle Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
Sandri, Laura
Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic hazard analysis
Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA)
Hazard assessment
Volcanic ash
Quantitative study
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònica
title_short Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
title_full Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
title_fullStr Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
title_full_unstemmed Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
title_sort Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sandri, Laura
Costa, Antonio
Selva, Jacopo
Tonini, Roberto
Macedonio, Giovanni
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Sulpizio, Roberto
author Sandri, Laura
author_facet Sandri, Laura
Costa, Antonio
Selva, Jacopo
Tonini, Roberto
Macedonio, Giovanni
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Sulpizio, Roberto
author_role author
author2 Costa, Antonio
Selva, Jacopo
Tonini, Roberto
Macedonio, Giovanni
Folch, Arnau|||0000-0002-0677-6366
Sulpizio, Roberto
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic hazard analysis
Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA)
Hazard assessment
Volcanic ash
Quantitative study
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònica
topic Volcanic activity prediction
Volcanic hazard analysis
Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA)
Hazard assessment
Volcanic ash
Quantitative study
Activitat volcànica--Previsió
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria electrònica
description Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
2016-04-12
2016
2016-05-31
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/87532
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep24271
27067389
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/87532
https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep24271
identifier_str_mv 27067389
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102 Seventh Framework Programme 308665 MEDiterranean SUpersite Volcanoes
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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