Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth

Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega

Bibliographic Details
Author: Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume
Format: master thesis
Publication Date:2021
Country:España
Institution:Universidad de Barcelona
Repository:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/180439
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Previsió del temps
Predicció climàtica decadal
Conca oceànica
Treballs de fi de màster
Weather forecasting
Decadal climate predictions
Oceanic basin
Master's theses
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spelling Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-EarthRuiz de Morales Céspedes, JaumePrevisió del tempsPredicció climàtica decadalConca oceànicaTreballs de fi de màsterWeather forecastingDecadal climate predictionsOceanic basinMaster's thesesMàster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo OrtegaThe climate system is changing with unprecedented consequences for the environment and many socioeconomic sectors. Hence the importance of predicting these changes. This study aims to produce an evaluation of the predictive skill in a decadal prediction system performed with EC-Earth. It specifically targets three variables of high relevance for human activities, such as sea surface temperature, the sea surface height anomaly (which quantifies sea level rise) and the total cloud cover (which is critical for storm development). The evaluation has mostly focused on two major ocean basins (Pacific and Atlantic), where important modes of variability like the El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability take place, and also on the Equatorial stratosphere, where the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, a highly predictable mode, occurs. Concerning the results, we have shown high prediction skill for all variables in the first forecast year. In the following years, we note a general reduction of the predictive skill, particularly in the southeastern Tropical Pacific, which might point to deficiencies in the model to simulate ENSO periodicity and/or regionality. Furthermore, a general lack of skill in the North Atlantic, may imply that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, at least in EC-Earth, is not a source of sea level predictability. Regarding the QBO, results have shown a high prediction skill, especially in the first 29 months. However, the QBO cycle periodicity is not well represented by EC-Earth, which degrades the credibility of the predictions in the subsequent forecast yearsPalmeiro Núñez, FroilaBilbao, RobertoOrtega, Pablo2021info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439Màster Oficial - Meteorologiareponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaIngléscc-by-nc-nd (c) Ruiz de Morales, 2021http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1804392026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
title Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
spellingShingle Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume
Previsió del temps
Predicció climàtica decadal
Conca oceànica
Treballs de fi de màster
Weather forecasting
Decadal climate predictions
Oceanic basin
Master's theses
title_short Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
title_full Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
title_fullStr Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
title_full_unstemmed Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
title_sort Skill assessment of a set of retrospective decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume
author Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume
author_facet Ruiz de Morales Céspedes, Jaume
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Palmeiro Núñez, Froila
Bilbao, Roberto
Ortega, Pablo
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Previsió del temps
Predicció climàtica decadal
Conca oceànica
Treballs de fi de màster
Weather forecasting
Decadal climate predictions
Oceanic basin
Master's theses
topic Previsió del temps
Predicció climàtica decadal
Conca oceànica
Treballs de fi de màster
Weather forecasting
Decadal climate predictions
Oceanic basin
Master's theses
description Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutors: Froila Palmeiro Nuñez, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/180439
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd (c) Ruiz de Morales, 2021
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by-nc-nd (c) Ruiz de Morales, 2021
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Màster Oficial - Meteorologia
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869406745211699200
score 15.301603

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