Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Golpe Moya, Antonio A., Sánchez Fuentes, Antonio Jesús, Vides González, José Carlos
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/72193
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/72193
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:330.101.541
C33
C51
H60
Granger causality
Monetary policy
Public finance
Causal maps
PC algorithm
Economía
Economía pública
Macroeconomía
53 Ciencias Económicas
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/72193
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.Golpe Moya, Antonio A.Sánchez Fuentes, Antonio JesúsVides González, José Carlos330.101.541C33C51H60Granger causalityMonetary policyPublic financeCausal mapsPC algorithmEconomíaEconomía públicaMacroeconomía53 Ciencias Económicas5307.14 Teoría MacroeconómicaTo assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyze jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate "causality path" excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy.ElsevierUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20232023-01-0120232023-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/72193reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/721932026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
title Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
spellingShingle Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
Golpe Moya, Antonio A.
330.101.541
C33
C51
H60
Granger causality
Monetary policy
Public finance
Causal maps
PC algorithm
Economía
Economía pública
Macroeconomía
53 Ciencias Económicas
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
title_short Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
title_full Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
title_fullStr Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
title_full_unstemmed Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
title_sort Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Golpe Moya, Antonio A.
Sánchez Fuentes, Antonio Jesús
Vides González, José Carlos
author Golpe Moya, Antonio A.
author_facet Golpe Moya, Antonio A.
Sánchez Fuentes, Antonio Jesús
Vides González, José Carlos
author_role author
author2 Sánchez Fuentes, Antonio Jesús
Vides González, José Carlos
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 330.101.541
C33
C51
H60
Granger causality
Monetary policy
Public finance
Causal maps
PC algorithm
Economía
Economía pública
Macroeconomía
53 Ciencias Económicas
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
topic 330.101.541
C33
C51
H60
Granger causality
Monetary policy
Public finance
Causal maps
PC algorithm
Economía
Economía pública
Macroeconomía
53 Ciencias Económicas
5307.14 Teoría Macroeconómica
description To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyze jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate "causality path" excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023-01-01
2023
2023-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/72193
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/72193
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.300719

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