Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation

A discrete map for modelling wildfire propagation is derived from a prototypical reaction-diffusion equation for the temperature field. We show that, for a constant fuel concentration at the fire-front, the heat transfer coefficient from fuel to surroundings and as well as an effective heat of react...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Mampel, J., Egorova, V., Pagnini, G.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión enviada para evaluación y publicación
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
Repositorio:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
OAI Identifier:oai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/1636
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1636
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Wildland fire
transition to chaos
chaotic map
real-time risk assessment
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spelling Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagationMampel, J.Egorova, V.Pagnini, G.Wildland firetransition to chaoschaotic mapreal-time risk assessmentA discrete map for modelling wildfire propagation is derived from a prototypical reaction-diffusion equation for the temperature field. We show that, for a constant fuel concentration at the fire-front, the heat transfer coefficient from fuel to surroundings and as well as an effective heat of reaction are two independent mechanisms that can cause the transition to chaos, when they may depend on temperature as a consequence of the fire-atmosphere coupling and of the fuel inhomogeneity, respectively. In particular, chaos can enter when the coefficient for the heat transfer from the fuel to the surrounding depends linearly on the temperature and when the effective heat of reaction depends quadratically. Moreover, when the fuel concentration field at the fire-front fluctuates, this embodies a third mechanism that may cause the transition to chaos even without any fire-atmosphere coupling or fuel inhomogeneity. Surprisingly, when the effective heat of reaction depends linearly on the temperature, the chaos generated by the non-constant fuel concentration is ceased. This suppression is not observed when the chaos is due to the fire-atmosphere coupling with constant fuel concentration. In all cases, the onset of chaos is related to the logistic map. The application of this approach for setting an alternative method for real-time risk assessment is discussed in the conclusions.This research is supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2022–2025 program, by the Ministry of Science and Innovation: BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX2021-001142-S / MICIN / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033 and the project PID2019-107685RB-I00, and by the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) through the project PDC2022-133115-I00 entitled ”B 2 F 2: Be a Better digital Fire-Fighter” and funded by the European Union Next Generation EU; by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Department of Education of the regional government, the Junta of Castilla y Le ́on (Grant contract SA089P20).202320232023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1636reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Datainstname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2019-107685RB-I00Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:bird.bcamath.org:20.500.11824/16362026-06-19T12:47:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
title Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
spellingShingle Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
Mampel, J.
Wildland fire
transition to chaos
chaotic map
real-time risk assessment
title_short Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
title_full Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
title_fullStr Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
title_sort Predicting the arrival of the unpredictable: An approach for foreseeing the transition to chaos of wildfire propagation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mampel, J.
Egorova, V.
Pagnini, G.
author Mampel, J.
author_facet Mampel, J.
Egorova, V.
Pagnini, G.
author_role author
author2 Egorova, V.
Pagnini, G.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Wildland fire
transition to chaos
chaotic map
real-time risk assessment
topic Wildland fire
transition to chaos
chaotic map
real-time risk assessment
description A discrete map for modelling wildfire propagation is derived from a prototypical reaction-diffusion equation for the temperature field. We show that, for a constant fuel concentration at the fire-front, the heat transfer coefficient from fuel to surroundings and as well as an effective heat of reaction are two independent mechanisms that can cause the transition to chaos, when they may depend on temperature as a consequence of the fire-atmosphere coupling and of the fuel inhomogeneity, respectively. In particular, chaos can enter when the coefficient for the heat transfer from the fuel to the surrounding depends linearly on the temperature and when the effective heat of reaction depends quadratically. Moreover, when the fuel concentration field at the fire-front fluctuates, this embodies a third mechanism that may cause the transition to chaos even without any fire-atmosphere coupling or fuel inhomogeneity. Surprisingly, when the effective heat of reaction depends linearly on the temperature, the chaos generated by the non-constant fuel concentration is ceased. This suppression is not observed when the chaos is due to the fire-atmosphere coupling with constant fuel concentration. In all cases, the onset of chaos is related to the logistic map. The application of this approach for setting an alternative method for real-time risk assessment is discussed in the conclusions.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023
2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1636
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1636
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2019-107685RB-I00
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:BIRD. BCAM's Institutional Repository Data
instname:Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
instname_str Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM)
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