Combining a land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) model with participatory approaches in the simulation of disruptive future scenarios of urban land use change
Urban development is a process that becomes increasingly complex as the city evolves and in which unexpected events can happen which may alter the envisaged trend over time. To anticipate and examine the sudden emergence of processes that are difficult to predict over long-term future timelines, pro...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2023 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Alcalá (UAH) |
| Repositorio: | e_Buah Biblioteca Digital Universidad de Alcalá |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ebuah.uah.es:10017/57724 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10017/57724 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2022.101895 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Land parcel cellular automata (LP-CA) Disruptive scenarios Participation Urban land use Simulation Geografía Geography |
| Sumario: | Urban development is a process that becomes increasingly complex as the city evolves and in which unexpected events can happen which may alter the envisaged trend over time. To anticipate and examine the sudden emergence of processes that are difficult to predict over long-term future timelines, prospective methodologies are required to manage and implement disruptive narrative storylines in future scenario planning. In this research, a method that combines Land Parcel Cellular Automata (LP-CA) and participatory approaches was developed in order to generate land use trajectories that are spatially consistent with disruptive narrative storylines. The urban-industrial corridor of Henares (Spain), which has undergone important urban transformations in recent decades, was chosen as the study area to test the model. In a preliminary validation of the LP-CA model, a Figure of Merit (FOM) value of 0.2817 indicated satisfactory performance. The results demonstrated the usefulness of the participatory scenario-building and the workshop in supporting the configuration of the model parameters and the spatial representation of complex urban dynamics. In conclusion, this methodology can be used to generate simulations of urban land use change in disruptive future scenarios and to spatially observe the propagation of the uncertainty associated with future events across different urban land uses. |
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