Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis

[EN] This study presents a scenario-based assessment of the future sensitivity of minimal lowwater runoff to climate change in Western Kazakhstan. An ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), combined with dynamically downscaled projections for...

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Autores: Makhmudova, Lyazzat, Alimkulov, Sayat, Tursunova, Aysulu, Birimbayeva, Lyazzat, Talipova, Elmira, Alzhanov, Oirat, Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena|||0000-0002-8611-0504, Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier|||0000-0001-8380-7376
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/230027
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/230027
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Minimal runoff
Seasonal hydrological response
Climate change
CMIP6
Western Kazakhstan
Water resource management
03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades
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spelling Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario AnalysisMakhmudova, LyazzatAlimkulov, SayatTursunova, AysuluBirimbayeva, LyazzatTalipova, ElmiraAlzhanov, OiratRodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena|||0000-0002-8611-0504Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier|||0000-0001-8380-7376Minimal runoffSeasonal hydrological responseClimate changeCMIP6Western KazakhstanWater resource management03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades[EN] This study presents a scenario-based assessment of the future sensitivity of minimal lowwater runoff to climate change in Western Kazakhstan. An ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), combined with dynamically downscaled projections for Central Asia, was applied to estimate minimal monthly runoff during the summer¿autumn and winter low-water periods for the rivers of the Zhaiyk¿Caspian water management basin. The analysis covers three future time horizons: 2040 (2031¿2050), 2060 (2051¿2070), and 2080 (2071¿2090), under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios: SSP3-7.0 (moderately high emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). The results reveal a pronounced seasonal contrast in the projected hydrological response. During the winter low-water period, a steady increase in minimal runoff is projected for all rivers, with the most significant changes observed for the Or, Zhem, Temir, and Shagan rivers. This increase is primarily driven by higher winter precipitation, increased thaw frequency, and enhanced infiltration recharge. Conversely, despite modest increases in summer¿autumn precipitation, minimal runoff during the summer¿autumn low-water period is projected to decline significantly, particularly in the southern basins, due to elevated evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture deficits associated with rising air temperatures. These findings emphasize the importance of developing seasonally differentiated, climate-resilient water management strategies to mitigate low-flow risks and ensure water security under future climate conditions in arid and semi-arid regions.This research was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. BR21882122) "Sustainable Development of Natural-Industrial and Socioeconomic Systems of the West Kazakhstan Region in the Context of Green Growth: A Comprehensive Analysis, Concept, Forecast Estimates and Scenarios."MDPI AGDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio AmbienteInstituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio AmbienteEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y PuertosMinistry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of KazakhstanRepositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20252025-08-15journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/230027reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)InglésengMinistry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan BR21882122open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Reconocimiento (by)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/2300272026-06-13T07:49:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
title Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
spellingShingle Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
Makhmudova, Lyazzat
Minimal runoff
Seasonal hydrological response
Climate change
CMIP6
Western Kazakhstan
Water resource management
03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades
title_short Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
title_full Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
title_fullStr Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
title_sort Seasonally Contrasting Sensitivity of Minimal River Runoff to Future Climate Change in Western Kazakhstan: A CMIP6 Scenario Analysis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Makhmudova, Lyazzat
Alimkulov, Sayat
Tursunova, Aysulu
Birimbayeva, Lyazzat
Talipova, Elmira
Alzhanov, Oirat
Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena|||0000-0002-8611-0504
Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier|||0000-0001-8380-7376
author Makhmudova, Lyazzat
author_facet Makhmudova, Lyazzat
Alimkulov, Sayat
Tursunova, Aysulu
Birimbayeva, Lyazzat
Talipova, Elmira
Alzhanov, Oirat
Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena|||0000-0002-8611-0504
Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier|||0000-0001-8380-7376
author_role author
author2 Alimkulov, Sayat
Tursunova, Aysulu
Birimbayeva, Lyazzat
Talipova, Elmira
Alzhanov, Oirat
Rodrigo-Clavero, María-Elena|||0000-0002-8611-0504
Rodrigo-Ilarri, Javier|||0000-0001-8380-7376
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente
Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Minimal runoff
Seasonal hydrological response
Climate change
CMIP6
Western Kazakhstan
Water resource management
03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades
topic Minimal runoff
Seasonal hydrological response
Climate change
CMIP6
Western Kazakhstan
Water resource management
03.- Garantizar una vida saludable y promover el bienestar para todos y todas en todas las edades
description [EN] This study presents a scenario-based assessment of the future sensitivity of minimal lowwater runoff to climate change in Western Kazakhstan. An ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), combined with dynamically downscaled projections for Central Asia, was applied to estimate minimal monthly runoff during the summer¿autumn and winter low-water periods for the rivers of the Zhaiyk¿Caspian water management basin. The analysis covers three future time horizons: 2040 (2031¿2050), 2060 (2051¿2070), and 2080 (2071¿2090), under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios: SSP3-7.0 (moderately high emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). The results reveal a pronounced seasonal contrast in the projected hydrological response. During the winter low-water period, a steady increase in minimal runoff is projected for all rivers, with the most significant changes observed for the Or, Zhem, Temir, and Shagan rivers. This increase is primarily driven by higher winter precipitation, increased thaw frequency, and enhanced infiltration recharge. Conversely, despite modest increases in summer¿autumn precipitation, minimal runoff during the summer¿autumn low-water period is projected to decline significantly, particularly in the southern basins, due to elevated evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture deficits associated with rising air temperatures. These findings emphasize the importance of developing seasonally differentiated, climate-resilient water management strategies to mitigate low-flow risks and ensure water security under future climate conditions in arid and semi-arid regions.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-08-15
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/230027
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/230027
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan BR21882122
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento (by)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento (by)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI AG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI AG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869405689855606784
score 15.812429

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