Evaluating long-term low emission development strategies and implications for the remaining global carbon budget

The imperative to halt global warming extends beyond human boundaries, intertwining with the urgent need to achieve net-zero emissions. To this end, the Paris Agreement (PA) states that all Parties should strive to formulate their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Cruanyes Hernández, Clàudia, Alcaraz Sendra, Olga|||0000-0003-1648-7805, Sureda Carbonell, Bàrbara|||0000-0001-8691-3721
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/394673
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/394673
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2260785
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Environmental justice
Long-term low emission development strategies
Net-Zero pledges
Remaining carbon budget
Paris Agreement
Equity
Justícia ambiental
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Governabilitat mundial
Descripción
Sumario:The imperative to halt global warming extends beyond human boundaries, intertwining with the urgent need to achieve net-zero emissions. To this end, the Paris Agreement (PA) states that all Parties should strive to formulate their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). This article comprehensively reviews the LT-LEDS submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 53 Parties (representing 75% of global emissions) as of September 23rd, 2022. First, it conducts an analysis of the quality and completeness of the LT-LEDS. The findings of this analysis highlight the need for improvement in the reported information, particularly to improve the clarity of the information presented and the monitoring of progress towards the objective of each LT-LEDS. Furthermore, the study confirms the noticeable absence of reference to the principles of equity, and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances. Yet these principles should frame climate action within the PA. Second, this article estimates the carbon budget to be utilized by the Parties that have integrated net-zero emission (NZE) targets within their LT-LEDS. The analysis reveals that this group of Parties (i.e., those reporting on LT-LEDS and those with NZE targets), currently encompasses 37% of the global population and is responsible for 62% of global emissions. If these NZE targets are met, the group is projected to consume a total of 431 GtCO2. This value notably exceeds the threshold of 400 GtCO2, exceeding the remaining global carbon budget estimated by the IPCC to be compatible with a 67% likelihood to achieve a temperature increase objective of 1.5 ºC.