Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models

As solar energy will be an increasingly important renewable energy source in the future years, the study of how climate change affects both temporal and spatial variability is very important. In this paper, we study future changes of the solar radiation resource in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) through...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Gil, V., Gaertner, M.A., Gutiérrez, C., Losada Doval, Teresa
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13901
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13901
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:52
Photovoltaic power-generation
Interannual variability
Electricity-generation
Late 21st-century
European climate
Energy
Precipitation
Performance
Projections
Resolution
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13901
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repository_id_str
spelling Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate modelsGil, V.Gaertner, M.A.Gutiérrez, C.Losada Doval, Teresa52Photovoltaic power-generationInterannual variabilityElectricity-generationLate 21st-centuryEuropean climateEnergyPrecipitationPerformanceProjectionsResolutionFísica atmosférica2501 Ciencias de la AtmósferaAs solar energy will be an increasingly important renewable energy source in the future years, the study of how climate change affects both temporal and spatial variability is very important. In this paper, we study future changes of the solar radiation resource in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) through a set of simulations from ESCENA project until mid-century. The evaluation of the simulations against observations indicates contrasting biases for the different regional climate models (RCMs) in terms of solar irradiation amount and its interannual variability. We propose a diagnostic for the quality of solar energy resource, in which the gridpoints are classified in four categories depending on the combination of solar irradiation amount and variability. The observed large percentage of points in the optimal category (high irradiation/low variability) in the IP is captured by the RCMs in general terms. The analysis of scenarios indicates a future increase in solar irradiation, although not all scenarios agree in the geographical distribution of this increase. In most projections, a shift is projected from the category with optimal resource quality towards the category with high irradiation/high variability, pointing to a certain quality loss in the solar resource. This result is not general, as a few scenarios show an opposite result. The exceptions are not linked to a particular GCM or emissions scenario. Finally, results from a first approximation to the issue of the ability of solar energy to cover power demand peaks in summer show important differences between regions of the IP. The spatially-averaged correlation of solar irradiation and summer surface temperatures for the whole IP is rather high, which is a positive result as the strong interconnections of the power grid within the IP could allow a distribution of solar power surpluses in certain regions for such high-temperature episodes.John WiIley & Sons LTDUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20192019-03-1520192019-03-15journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13901reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/139012026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
title Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
spellingShingle Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
Gil, V.
52
Photovoltaic power-generation
Interannual variability
Electricity-generation
Late 21st-century
European climate
Energy
Precipitation
Performance
Projections
Resolution
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
title_short Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
title_full Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
title_fullStr Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
title_full_unstemmed Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
title_sort Impact of climate change on solar irradiation and variability over the Iberian Peninsula using regional climate models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gil, V.
Gaertner, M.A.
Gutiérrez, C.
Losada Doval, Teresa
author Gil, V.
author_facet Gil, V.
Gaertner, M.A.
Gutiérrez, C.
Losada Doval, Teresa
author_role author
author2 Gaertner, M.A.
Gutiérrez, C.
Losada Doval, Teresa
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 52
Photovoltaic power-generation
Interannual variability
Electricity-generation
Late 21st-century
European climate
Energy
Precipitation
Performance
Projections
Resolution
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
topic 52
Photovoltaic power-generation
Interannual variability
Electricity-generation
Late 21st-century
European climate
Energy
Precipitation
Performance
Projections
Resolution
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
description As solar energy will be an increasingly important renewable energy source in the future years, the study of how climate change affects both temporal and spatial variability is very important. In this paper, we study future changes of the solar radiation resource in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) through a set of simulations from ESCENA project until mid-century. The evaluation of the simulations against observations indicates contrasting biases for the different regional climate models (RCMs) in terms of solar irradiation amount and its interannual variability. We propose a diagnostic for the quality of solar energy resource, in which the gridpoints are classified in four categories depending on the combination of solar irradiation amount and variability. The observed large percentage of points in the optimal category (high irradiation/low variability) in the IP is captured by the RCMs in general terms. The analysis of scenarios indicates a future increase in solar irradiation, although not all scenarios agree in the geographical distribution of this increase. In most projections, a shift is projected from the category with optimal resource quality towards the category with high irradiation/high variability, pointing to a certain quality loss in the solar resource. This result is not general, as a few scenarios show an opposite result. The exceptions are not linked to a particular GCM or emissions scenario. Finally, results from a first approximation to the issue of the ability of solar energy to cover power demand peaks in summer show important differences between regions of the IP. The spatially-averaged correlation of solar irradiation and summer surface temperatures for the whole IP is rather high, which is a positive result as the strong interconnections of the power grid within the IP could allow a distribution of solar power surpluses in certain regions for such high-temperature episodes.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-03-15
2019
2019-03-15
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13901
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13901
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John WiIley & Sons LTD
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John WiIley & Sons LTD
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300719

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