Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models

The basic input when seismic risk is estimated in urban environments is the expected physical damage level of buildings. The vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods are the tools that have been used most to estimate the probability of occurrence of this important variable. Although b...

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Autores: Vargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071X, Lantada, Nieves|||0000-0002-9974-6915, González Drigo, José Ramón|||0000-0003-2808-670X, Pujades Beneit, Lluís|||0000-0002-2619-0805
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/187109
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/187109
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041308
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Earthquake hazard analysis--Mathematical models
Seismic risk assessment
Stochastic non-linear models
Seismic damage
Uniform hazard spectra
Damage indexes
Risc sísmic
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
title Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
spellingShingle Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
Vargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071X
Earthquake hazard analysis--Mathematical models
Seismic risk assessment
Stochastic non-linear models
Seismic damage
Uniform hazard spectra
Damage indexes
Risc sísmic
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
title_short Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
title_full Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
title_fullStr Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
title_full_unstemmed Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
title_sort Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071X
Lantada, Nieves|||0000-0002-9974-6915
González Drigo, José Ramón|||0000-0003-2808-670X
Pujades Beneit, Lluís|||0000-0002-2619-0805
author Vargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071X
author_facet Vargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071X
Lantada, Nieves|||0000-0002-9974-6915
González Drigo, José Ramón|||0000-0003-2808-670X
Pujades Beneit, Lluís|||0000-0002-2619-0805
author_role author
author2 Lantada, Nieves|||0000-0002-9974-6915
González Drigo, José Ramón|||0000-0003-2808-670X
Pujades Beneit, Lluís|||0000-0002-2619-0805
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Earthquake hazard analysis--Mathematical models
Seismic risk assessment
Stochastic non-linear models
Seismic damage
Uniform hazard spectra
Damage indexes
Risc sísmic
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
topic Earthquake hazard analysis--Mathematical models
Seismic risk assessment
Stochastic non-linear models
Seismic damage
Uniform hazard spectra
Damage indexes
Risc sísmic
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
description The basic input when seismic risk is estimated in urban environments is the expected physical damage level of buildings. The vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods are the tools that have been used most to estimate the probability of occurrence of this important variable. Although both methods provide adequate estimates, they involve simplifications that are no longer necessary, given the current capacity of computers. In this study, an advanced method is developed that avoids many of these simplifications. The method starts from current state-of-the-art approaches, but it incorporates non-linear dynamic analysis and a probabilistic focus. Thus, the method considers not only the nonlinear dynamic response of the structures, modeled as multi degree of freedom systems (MDoF), but also uncertainties related to the loads, the geometry of the buildings, the mechanical properties of the materials and the seismic action. Once the method has been developed, the buildings are subjected to earthquake records that are selected and scaled according to the seismic hazard of the site and considering the probabilistic nature of the seismic actions. The practical applications of the method are illustrated with a case study: framed reinforced concrete buildings that are typical of an important district, the Eixample, in Barcelona (Spain). The building typology and the district were chosen because the seismic risk in Barcelona has been thoroughly studied, so detailed information about buildings’ features, seismic hazard and expected risk is available. Hence, the current results can be compared with those obtained using simpler, less sophisticated methods. The main aspects of the method are presented and discussed first. Then, the case study is described and the results obtained with the capacity spectrum method are compared with the results using the approach presented here. The results at hand show reasonably good agreement with previous seismic damage and risk scenarios in Barcelona, but the new method provides richer, more detailed, more reliable information. This is particularly useful for seismic risk reduction, prevention and management, to move towards more resilient, sustainable cities.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
2020-02-01
2020
2020-05-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/187109
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041308
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/187109
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041308
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 799553 Keeping and Increasing Resilience Opportunities and Sustainability of communities against earthquakes
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad http://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CGL2015-65913-P DESARROLLO Y APLICACION DE HERRAMIENTAS AVANZADAS PARA LA EVALUACION, PREVENCION Y GESTION DEL RIESGO SISMICO
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Seismic risk assessment using stochastic nonlinear modelsVargas Alzate, Yeudy Felipe|||0000-0001-7049-071XLantada, Nieves|||0000-0002-9974-6915González Drigo, José Ramón|||0000-0003-2808-670XPujades Beneit, Lluís|||0000-0002-2619-0805Earthquake hazard analysis--Mathematical modelsSeismic risk assessmentStochastic non-linear modelsSeismic damageUniform hazard spectraDamage indexesRisc sísmicÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::SismologiaThe basic input when seismic risk is estimated in urban environments is the expected physical damage level of buildings. The vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods are the tools that have been used most to estimate the probability of occurrence of this important variable. Although both methods provide adequate estimates, they involve simplifications that are no longer necessary, given the current capacity of computers. In this study, an advanced method is developed that avoids many of these simplifications. The method starts from current state-of-the-art approaches, but it incorporates non-linear dynamic analysis and a probabilistic focus. Thus, the method considers not only the nonlinear dynamic response of the structures, modeled as multi degree of freedom systems (MDoF), but also uncertainties related to the loads, the geometry of the buildings, the mechanical properties of the materials and the seismic action. Once the method has been developed, the buildings are subjected to earthquake records that are selected and scaled according to the seismic hazard of the site and considering the probabilistic nature of the seismic actions. The practical applications of the method are illustrated with a case study: framed reinforced concrete buildings that are typical of an important district, the Eixample, in Barcelona (Spain). The building typology and the district were chosen because the seismic risk in Barcelona has been thoroughly studied, so detailed information about buildings’ features, seismic hazard and expected risk is available. Hence, the current results can be compared with those obtained using simpler, less sophisticated methods. The main aspects of the method are presented and discussed first. Then, the case study is described and the results obtained with the capacity spectrum method are compared with the results using the approach presented here. The results at hand show reasonably good agreement with previous seismic damage and risk scenarios in Barcelona, but the new method provides richer, more detailed, more reliable information. This is particularly useful for seismic risk reduction, prevention and management, to move towards more resilient, sustainable cities.This research was funded by the research grant program Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA), European Union/European (H2020-MSCA-IF-2017) No 799553. This research was also partially funded by the Spanish Government’s Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and by the European Regional Development Funds (ERDF) of the European Union (EU) through projects with references CGL2015-65913 -P (MINECO/ERDF, EU) and EFA158/16/POCRISC (INTERREG/POCTEFA. EU). The support of these institutions is highly recognized and acknowledged.Peer Reviewed20202020-02-0120202020-05-11journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/187109https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041308reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 799553 Keeping and Increasing Resilience Opportunities and Sustainability of communities against earthquakesMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad http://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CGL2015-65913-P DESARROLLO Y APLICACION DE HERRAMIENTAS AVANZADAS PARA LA EVALUACION, PREVENCION Y GESTION DEL RIESGO SISMICOopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/1871092026-05-27T15:37:01Z
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