Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea sur...

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Autores: Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén, Mohino, Elsa, Mechoso, Carlos R., Caminade, Cyril, Biasutti, Michela, Gaetani, Marco, García-Serrano, J., Vizy, Edward K., Cook, Kerry, Xue, Yongkang, Polo, Irene, Losada, Teresa, Druyan, Leonard, Fontaine, Bernard, Bader, J., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Goddard, Lisa, Janicot, S., Arribas, Alberto, Lau, William, Colman, Andrew, Vellinga, M., Rowell, David P., Kucharski, F., Voldoire, Aurore
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/116593
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/116593
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:África
Teleconnections
Monsoons
Climate prediction
Climate variability
Tropical variability
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spelling Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRodríguez-Fonseca, BelénMohino, ElsaMechoso, Carlos R.Caminade, CyrilBiasutti, MichelaGaetani, MarcoGarcía-Serrano, J.Vizy, Edward K.Cook, KerryXue, YongkangPolo, IreneLosada, TeresaDruyan, LeonardFontaine, BernardBader, J.Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.Goddard, LisaJanicot, S.Arribas, AlbertoLau, WilliamColman, AndrewVellinga, M.Rowell, David P.Kucharski, F.Voldoire, AuroreÁfricaTeleconnectionsMonsoonsClimate predictionClimate variabilityTropical variabilityThe Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.This work was supported by Spanish projects MINECO CGL2011-13564-E and GL2012-38923-C02-01. Support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (awards ATM-1036604 and AGS-1041477) is gratefully acknowledged.Peer reviewedAmerican Meteorological SocietyConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]201520152015info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Postprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/116593reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/243964http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1165932026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
title Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
spellingShingle Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
África
Teleconnections
Monsoons
Climate prediction
Climate variability
Tropical variability
title_short Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
title_full Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
title_fullStr Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
title_full_unstemmed Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
title_sort Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Mohino, Elsa
Mechoso, Carlos R.
Caminade, Cyril
Biasutti, Michela
Gaetani, Marco
García-Serrano, J.
Vizy, Edward K.
Cook, Kerry
Xue, Yongkang
Polo, Irene
Losada, Teresa
Druyan, Leonard
Fontaine, Bernard
Bader, J.
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Goddard, Lisa
Janicot, S.
Arribas, Alberto
Lau, William
Colman, Andrew
Vellinga, M.
Rowell, David P.
Kucharski, F.
Voldoire, Aurore
author Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
author_facet Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Mohino, Elsa
Mechoso, Carlos R.
Caminade, Cyril
Biasutti, Michela
Gaetani, Marco
García-Serrano, J.
Vizy, Edward K.
Cook, Kerry
Xue, Yongkang
Polo, Irene
Losada, Teresa
Druyan, Leonard
Fontaine, Bernard
Bader, J.
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Goddard, Lisa
Janicot, S.
Arribas, Alberto
Lau, William
Colman, Andrew
Vellinga, M.
Rowell, David P.
Kucharski, F.
Voldoire, Aurore
author_role author
author2 Mohino, Elsa
Mechoso, Carlos R.
Caminade, Cyril
Biasutti, Michela
Gaetani, Marco
García-Serrano, J.
Vizy, Edward K.
Cook, Kerry
Xue, Yongkang
Polo, Irene
Losada, Teresa
Druyan, Leonard
Fontaine, Bernard
Bader, J.
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
Goddard, Lisa
Janicot, S.
Arribas, Alberto
Lau, William
Colman, Andrew
Vellinga, M.
Rowell, David P.
Kucharski, F.
Voldoire, Aurore
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv África
Teleconnections
Monsoons
Climate prediction
Climate variability
Tropical variability
topic África
Teleconnections
Monsoons
Climate prediction
Climate variability
Tropical variability
description The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
2015
2015
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Postprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/116593
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/116593
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/243964
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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