Conflict and intergroup trade: evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Korovkin, Vasily, Makarin, Alexey
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/70909
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/70909
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191701
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Conflicte d&apos
Ucraïna, 2014---Aspectes econòmics
Descripción
Sumario:Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.