Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series

Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Morales Esteban, Antonio, Martínez Álvarez, F., Troncoso Lora, Alicia, Justo, J. L., Rubio Escudero, Cristina
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión enviada para evaluación y publicación
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/140002
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/140002
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2010.05.050
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Time series
Earthquakes forecasting
Clustering
Descrição
Resumo:Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this paper, clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium–large earthquakes. First, earthquakes are classified into different groups and the optimal number of groups, a priori unknown, is determined. Then, patterns are discovered when medium–large earthquakes happen. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed, showing a remarkable performance and the significance of the obtained results.