Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability

The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are...

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Autores: Qasmi, Saïd, Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia, Ruprich-Robert, Yohan|||0000-0002-4008-2026, Boé, Julien, Cassou, Christophe
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/340277
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Climatology
North Atlantic oscillation
Climatic changes
Heat waves (Meteorology)
Europe
North Atlantic Ocean
Extreme events
Climate variability
Multidecadal variability
North Atlantic Oscillation
Simulació per ordinador
Climatologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
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spelling Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variabilityQasmi, SaïdSanchez-Gomez, EmiliaRuprich-Robert, Yohan|||0000-0002-4008-2026Boé, JulienCassou, ChristopheClimatologyNorth Atlantic oscillationClimatic changesHeat waves (Meteorology)EuropeNorth Atlantic OceanExtreme eventsClimate variabilityMultidecadal variabilityNorth Atlantic OscillationSimulació per ordinadorClimatologiaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàticThe influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are relaxed toward different amplitudes of the observed AMV anomalies. In agreement with observations, during a positive phase of the AMV both models simulate an increase (decrease) in temperature of 0.2°–0.8°C and a decrease (increase) in precipitation over the Mediterranean basin of 0.1–0.2 mm day−1 (northern half of Europe) compared to a negative phase. Heatwave durations over the Mediterranean land regions are 40% (up to 85% over the eastern regions) longer for a moderate amplitude of the AMV. Lower and higher amplitudes lead to longer durations of ~30% and ~100%, respectively. A comparison with observed heatwaves indicates that the AMV can considerably modulate the current anthropogenically forced response on heatwaves durations depending on the area and on the AMV amplitude. The related anticyclonic anomalies over the Mediterranean basin are associated with drier soils and a reduction of cloud cover, which concomitantly induce a decrease (increase) of the latent (sensible) heat flux, and an enhancement of the downward radiative fluxes over lands. It is found that both tropical and extratropical forcings from the AMV are needed to trigger mechanisms, which modulate the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region. The amplitude of the local climate response over the Mediterranean basin evolves linearly with the amplitude of the AMV. However, the strength of this relationship differs between the models, and depends on their intrinsic biases.This work was supported by a grant from Electricité de France (EDF), by the French National Research Agency (ANR) in the framework of the MORDICUS project (Grant AgreementANR-13-SENV-731 0002), and by theEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme in the framework (i) of the PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727) and (ii) of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant INADEC (Grant Agreement 800154). The figures were produced with the NCAR Command Language Software (http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/ D6WD3XH5). The authors are grateful to Marie-Pierre Moine, Laure Coquart, and Isabelle d’Ast for technical help to run the CNRM-CM5 model, and to the three anonymous reviewers who provided helpful comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.Peer ReviewedAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS)20212021-02-0120212021-02-22journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 641727 PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk AssessmentEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 800154 Impacts of the North Atlantic Decadal variability on European Climate: mechanisms and predictabilityopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3402772026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
title Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
spellingShingle Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
Qasmi, Saïd
Climatology
North Atlantic oscillation
Climatic changes
Heat waves (Meteorology)
Europe
North Atlantic Ocean
Extreme events
Climate variability
Multidecadal variability
North Atlantic Oscillation
Simulació per ordinador
Climatologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
title_short Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
title_full Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
title_fullStr Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
title_full_unstemmed Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
title_sort Modulation of the occurrence of heatwaves over the Euro-Mediterranean region by the intensity of the Atlantic multidecadal variability
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Qasmi, Saïd
Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ruprich-Robert, Yohan|||0000-0002-4008-2026
Boé, Julien
Cassou, Christophe
author Qasmi, Saïd
author_facet Qasmi, Saïd
Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ruprich-Robert, Yohan|||0000-0002-4008-2026
Boé, Julien
Cassou, Christophe
author_role author
author2 Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia
Ruprich-Robert, Yohan|||0000-0002-4008-2026
Boé, Julien
Cassou, Christophe
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climatology
North Atlantic oscillation
Climatic changes
Heat waves (Meteorology)
Europe
North Atlantic Ocean
Extreme events
Climate variability
Multidecadal variability
North Atlantic Oscillation
Simulació per ordinador
Climatologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
topic Climatology
North Atlantic oscillation
Climatic changes
Heat waves (Meteorology)
Europe
North Atlantic Ocean
Extreme events
Climate variability
Multidecadal variability
North Atlantic Oscillation
Simulació per ordinador
Climatologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
description The influence of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been conducted in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are relaxed toward different amplitudes of the observed AMV anomalies. In agreement with observations, during a positive phase of the AMV both models simulate an increase (decrease) in temperature of 0.2°–0.8°C and a decrease (increase) in precipitation over the Mediterranean basin of 0.1–0.2 mm day−1 (northern half of Europe) compared to a negative phase. Heatwave durations over the Mediterranean land regions are 40% (up to 85% over the eastern regions) longer for a moderate amplitude of the AMV. Lower and higher amplitudes lead to longer durations of ~30% and ~100%, respectively. A comparison with observed heatwaves indicates that the AMV can considerably modulate the current anthropogenically forced response on heatwaves durations depending on the area and on the AMV amplitude. The related anticyclonic anomalies over the Mediterranean basin are associated with drier soils and a reduction of cloud cover, which concomitantly induce a decrease (increase) of the latent (sensible) heat flux, and an enhancement of the downward radiative fluxes over lands. It is found that both tropical and extratropical forcings from the AMV are needed to trigger mechanisms, which modulate the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic region. The amplitude of the local climate response over the Mediterranean basin evolves linearly with the amplitude of the AMV. However, the strength of this relationship differs between the models, and depends on their intrinsic biases.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-02-01
2021
2021-02-22
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/340277
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0982.1
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 641727 PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment
European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 800154 Impacts of the North Atlantic Decadal variability on European Climate: mechanisms and predictability
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society (AMS)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society (AMS)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300719

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