Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times

Probabilistic pavement models, with Markov chains as the most widely used type, are considered to capture an accurate representation of the in situ pavement performance. Homogeneous Markov chain models present the same transition probability matrix (TPM) for all the transitions of the period and req...

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Autores: Alonso-Solorzano, Ángela, Pérez Acebo, Heriberto, Findley, Daniel J., Gonzalo Orden, Hernán
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Burgos (UBU)
Repositorio:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos (RIUBU)
OAI Identifier:oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/9860
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10259/9860
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Pavement performance model
Probabilistic model
Homogeneous Markov chain
International Roughness Index
Pavement management system
Pavimentos
Carreteras
Pavements
Roads
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repository_id_str
spelling Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle timesAlonso-Solorzano, ÁngelaPérez Acebo, HeribertoFindley, Daniel J.Gonzalo Orden, HernánPavement performance modelProbabilistic modelHomogeneous Markov chainInternational Roughness IndexPavement management systemPavimentosCarreterasPavementsRoadsProbabilistic pavement models, with Markov chains as the most widely used type, are considered to capture an accurate representation of the in situ pavement performance. Homogeneous Markov chain models present the same transition probability matrix (TPM) for all the transitions of the period and require data from multiple duty cycles of one or two years. The aim of this paper is to explore the feasibility of developing homogeneous Markov chain models with variations of the duty cycle (in increments of either one or two years). Without considering maintenance and rehabilitation works, this research found that TPMs for a one-year duty cycle can be calculated from the two-year duty cycle, without a noticeable effect on accuracy using International Roughness Index (IRI) values from the Spanish State Road Network. However, for developing coherent TPMs, two primary assumptions were made: (1) heavy vehicle traffic volumes determine the traffic category (TC), and (2) only roads from the same climatic region were modelled. The satisfactory results verified the validity of the methodology and overcame the disadvantages of homogeneous Markov models. Furthermore, the results suggest that pavement sections are adequately designed in Spain for each TC because of the similar deterioration patterns.Taylor and Francis202520252023info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10259/9860reponame:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos (RIUBU)instname:Universidad de Burgos (UBU)InglésInternational Journal of Pavement Engineering. 2023, V. 24, n. 2, 2278694https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2023.2278694Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/98602026-05-28T07:56:11Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
title Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
spellingShingle Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
Alonso-Solorzano, Ángela
Pavement performance model
Probabilistic model
Homogeneous Markov chain
International Roughness Index
Pavement management system
Pavimentos
Carreteras
Pavements
Roads
title_short Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
title_full Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
title_fullStr Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
title_full_unstemmed Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
title_sort Transition probability matrices for pavement deterioration modelling with variable duty cycle times
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alonso-Solorzano, Ángela
Pérez Acebo, Heriberto
Findley, Daniel J.
Gonzalo Orden, Hernán
author Alonso-Solorzano, Ángela
author_facet Alonso-Solorzano, Ángela
Pérez Acebo, Heriberto
Findley, Daniel J.
Gonzalo Orden, Hernán
author_role author
author2 Pérez Acebo, Heriberto
Findley, Daniel J.
Gonzalo Orden, Hernán
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Pavement performance model
Probabilistic model
Homogeneous Markov chain
International Roughness Index
Pavement management system
Pavimentos
Carreteras
Pavements
Roads
topic Pavement performance model
Probabilistic model
Homogeneous Markov chain
International Roughness Index
Pavement management system
Pavimentos
Carreteras
Pavements
Roads
description Probabilistic pavement models, with Markov chains as the most widely used type, are considered to capture an accurate representation of the in situ pavement performance. Homogeneous Markov chain models present the same transition probability matrix (TPM) for all the transitions of the period and require data from multiple duty cycles of one or two years. The aim of this paper is to explore the feasibility of developing homogeneous Markov chain models with variations of the duty cycle (in increments of either one or two years). Without considering maintenance and rehabilitation works, this research found that TPMs for a one-year duty cycle can be calculated from the two-year duty cycle, without a noticeable effect on accuracy using International Roughness Index (IRI) values from the Spanish State Road Network. However, for developing coherent TPMs, two primary assumptions were made: (1) heavy vehicle traffic volumes determine the traffic category (TC), and (2) only roads from the same climatic region were modelled. The satisfactory results verified the validity of the methodology and overcame the disadvantages of homogeneous Markov models. Furthermore, the results suggest that pavement sections are adequately designed in Spain for each TC because of the similar deterioration patterns.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10259/9860
url http://hdl.handle.net/10259/9860
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv International Journal of Pavement Engineering. 2023, V. 24, n. 2, 2278694
https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2023.2278694
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor and Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos (RIUBU)
instname:Universidad de Burgos (UBU)
instname_str Universidad de Burgos (UBU)
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos (RIUBU)
collection Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos (RIUBU)
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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