Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain

Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution...

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Autores: Gangoso, L, Aragones, D, Martinez-de la Puente, J, Lucientes, J, Delacour-Estrella, S, Pena, RE, Montalvo, T, Bueno-Mari, R, Bravo-Barriga, D, Frontera, E, Marques, E, Ruiz-Arrondo, I, Munoz, A, Oteo, JA, Miranda, MA, Barcelo, C, Vazquez, MSA, Silva-Torres, MI, Ferraguti, M, Magallanes, S, Muriel, J, Marzal, A, Aranda, C, Ruiz, S, Gonzalez, MA, Morchon, R, Gomez-Barroso, D, Figuerola, J
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Recursos:Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau)
Repositorio:r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau
OAI Identifier:oai:iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com:p13570
Acesso em linha:https://iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=13570
https://zenodo.org/record/5723923#.Y6CMpXbMKUk
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Climate change
Culicidae
Habitat suitability
Species distribution model
Vector-borne pathogens
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spelling Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in SpainGangoso, LAragones, DMartinez-de la Puente, JLucientes, JDelacour-Estrella, SPena, REMontalvo, TBueno-Mari, RBravo-Barriga, DFrontera, EMarques, ERuiz-Arrondo, IMunoz, AOteo, JAMiranda, MABarcelo, CVazquez, MSASilva-Torres, MIFerraguti, MMagallanes, SMuriel, JMarzal, AAranda, CRuiz, SGonzalez, MAMorchon, RGomez-Barroso, DFiguerola, JClimate changeCulicidaeHabitat suitabilitySpecies distribution modelVector-borne pathogensChanges in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important humanactivity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission.ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE2020info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=13570https://zenodo.org/record/5723923#.Y6CMpXbMKUkENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCHISSN: 00139351ISSNe: 10960953reponame:r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pauinstname:Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com:p135702026-06-14T12:41:47Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
title Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
spellingShingle Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
Gangoso, L
Climate change
Culicidae
Habitat suitability
Species distribution model
Vector-borne pathogens
title_short Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
title_full Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
title_fullStr Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
title_full_unstemmed Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
title_sort Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gangoso, L
Aragones, D
Martinez-de la Puente, J
Lucientes, J
Delacour-Estrella, S
Pena, RE
Montalvo, T
Bueno-Mari, R
Bravo-Barriga, D
Frontera, E
Marques, E
Ruiz-Arrondo, I
Munoz, A
Oteo, JA
Miranda, MA
Barcelo, C
Vazquez, MSA
Silva-Torres, MI
Ferraguti, M
Magallanes, S
Muriel, J
Marzal, A
Aranda, C
Ruiz, S
Gonzalez, MA
Morchon, R
Gomez-Barroso, D
Figuerola, J
author Gangoso, L
author_facet Gangoso, L
Aragones, D
Martinez-de la Puente, J
Lucientes, J
Delacour-Estrella, S
Pena, RE
Montalvo, T
Bueno-Mari, R
Bravo-Barriga, D
Frontera, E
Marques, E
Ruiz-Arrondo, I
Munoz, A
Oteo, JA
Miranda, MA
Barcelo, C
Vazquez, MSA
Silva-Torres, MI
Ferraguti, M
Magallanes, S
Muriel, J
Marzal, A
Aranda, C
Ruiz, S
Gonzalez, MA
Morchon, R
Gomez-Barroso, D
Figuerola, J
author_role author
author2 Aragones, D
Martinez-de la Puente, J
Lucientes, J
Delacour-Estrella, S
Pena, RE
Montalvo, T
Bueno-Mari, R
Bravo-Barriga, D
Frontera, E
Marques, E
Ruiz-Arrondo, I
Munoz, A
Oteo, JA
Miranda, MA
Barcelo, C
Vazquez, MSA
Silva-Torres, MI
Ferraguti, M
Magallanes, S
Muriel, J
Marzal, A
Aranda, C
Ruiz, S
Gonzalez, MA
Morchon, R
Gomez-Barroso, D
Figuerola, J
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate change
Culicidae
Habitat suitability
Species distribution model
Vector-borne pathogens
topic Climate change
Culicidae
Habitat suitability
Species distribution model
Vector-borne pathogens
description Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important humanactivity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=13570
https://zenodo.org/record/5723923#.Y6CMpXbMKUk
url https://iibsantpau.fundanetsuite.com/Publicaciones/ProdCientif/PublicacionFrw.aspx?id=13570
https://zenodo.org/record/5723923#.Y6CMpXbMKUk
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
ISSN: 00139351
ISSNe: 10960953
reponame:r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau
instname:Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau)
instname_str Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau)
reponame_str r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau
collection r-IIB SANT PAU. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica del Instituto de Investigación Biomédica Sant Pau
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,811543

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