Forecasting compositional risk allocations

We analyse models for panel data that arise in risk allocation problems, when a given set of sources are the cause of an aggregate risk value. We focus on the modelling and forecasting of proportional contributions to risk over time. Compositional data methods are proposed and the time-series regres...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Boonen, Tim J., Guillén, Montserrat, Santolino, Miguel
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/127273
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/127273
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Risc (Economia)
Assignació d'actius
Anàlisi de dades de panel
Risk
Asset allocation
Panel analysis
Descripción
Sumario:We analyse models for panel data that arise in risk allocation problems, when a given set of sources are the cause of an aggregate risk value. We focus on the modelling and forecasting of proportional contributions to risk over time. Compositional data methods are proposed and the time-series regression is flexible to incorporate external information from other variables. We guarantee that projected proportional contributions add up to 100%, and we introduce a method to generate confidence regions with the same restriction. An illustration is provided for risk capital allocations.