Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador

The aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios c...

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Autores: Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian, Fontalvo, Javier, Ramírez, Paola, Marti-Herrero, Jaime, Mediavilla, Margarita
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/430064
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/430064
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15196938
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Oil availability
Energy transition scenarios
Energy demand
Degrowth
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
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spelling Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of EcuadorEspinoza, Vicente SebastianFontalvo, JavierRamírez, PaolaMarti-Herrero, JaimeMediavilla, MargaritaOil availabilityEnergy transition scenariosEnergy demandDegrowthÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::EnergiesThe aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios considering constraints on oil availability at the national and global level. Results show that if current trends in energy demand and supply persist, energy scarcity would start around 2040 due to depletion of national oil reserves and restricted access to foreign oil. This would trigger a degrowth in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on petroleum products. Scenarios with conservative efforts might partially revert the increasing use of fossil fuels supported by policies for energy efficiency and substitution of liquid fuels with electricity mainly from renewables. However, energy shortages would still be foreseeable as well as a decay of the economy. Under a maximum efforts scenario with an optimistic availability of national oil, a moderate-sustained economic growth could be feasible. This shows that oil would still play a key role during the transition. Furthermore, ambitious policies must be implemented in the short term to smooth the effects of displacing oil as energy and income source.Peer ReviewedMDPI20222022-09-2220252025-05-21journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/430064https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15196938reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/4300642026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
title Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
spellingShingle Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Oil availability
Energy transition scenarios
Energy demand
Degrowth
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
title_short Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
title_full Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
title_fullStr Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
title_full_unstemmed Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
title_sort Energy transition scenarios for fossil fuel rich developing countries under constraints on oil availability: the case of Ecuador
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Fontalvo, Javier
Ramírez, Paola
Marti-Herrero, Jaime
Mediavilla, Margarita
author Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
author_facet Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian
Fontalvo, Javier
Ramírez, Paola
Marti-Herrero, Jaime
Mediavilla, Margarita
author_role author
author2 Fontalvo, Javier
Ramírez, Paola
Marti-Herrero, Jaime
Mediavilla, Margarita
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Oil availability
Energy transition scenarios
Energy demand
Degrowth
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
topic Oil availability
Energy transition scenarios
Energy demand
Degrowth
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
description The aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios considering constraints on oil availability at the national and global level. Results show that if current trends in energy demand and supply persist, energy scarcity would start around 2040 due to depletion of national oil reserves and restricted access to foreign oil. This would trigger a degrowth in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on petroleum products. Scenarios with conservative efforts might partially revert the increasing use of fossil fuels supported by policies for energy efficiency and substitution of liquid fuels with electricity mainly from renewables. However, energy shortages would still be foreseeable as well as a decay of the economy. Under a maximum efforts scenario with an optimistic availability of national oil, a moderate-sustained economic growth could be feasible. This shows that oil would still play a key role during the transition. Furthermore, ambitious policies must be implemented in the short term to smooth the effects of displacing oil as energy and income source.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022-09-22
2025
2025-05-21
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/430064
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15196938
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/430064
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15196938
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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