Hierarchical spatio-temporal change-point detection

Detecting change-points in multivariate settings is usually carried out by analyzing all marginals either independently, via univariate methods, or jointly, through multivariate approaches. The former discards any inherent dependencies between different marginals and the latter may suffer from domin...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Moradi, Mohammad Mehdi, Cronie, Ottmar, Pérez Goya, Unai, Mateu, Jorge
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2023
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Pública de Navarra
Repository:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
OAI Identifier:oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/46011
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2454/46011
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Clustering
Functional data
Land surface temperature
Multivariate analysis
Point patterns
Satellite images
Trace-variogram
Description
Summary:Detecting change-points in multivariate settings is usually carried out by analyzing all marginals either independently, via univariate methods, or jointly, through multivariate approaches. The former discards any inherent dependencies between different marginals and the latter may suffer from domination/masking among different change-points of distinct marginals. As a remedy, we propose an approach which groups marginals with similar temporal behaviors, and then performs group-wise multivariate change-point detection. Our approach groups marginals based on hierarchical clustering using distances which adjust for inherent dependencies. Through a simulation study we show that our approach, by preventing domination/masking, significantly enhances the general performance of the employed multivariate change-point detection method. Finally, we apply our approach to two datasets: (i) Land Surface Temperature in Spain, during the years 2000–2021, and (ii) The WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary data.